Overview of Argentina’s Economic Performance
Argentina’s economic activity in the second quarter of 2025 experienced its first decline since the second quarter of 2024, marking a decrease of 0.1% compared to the first quarter of 2025. This break in the trend comes after three consecutive quarters of growth.
However, when comparing to the second quarter of the previous year, Argentina’s activity increased by 6.3%. On an annual basis, the growth stood at 6.1%.
Key Sectoral Performance
The data, as per the preliminary estimate by Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC), shows mixed results across various sectors:
- Imports: Decreased by 3.3% compared to the first quarter of 2025.
- Private Consumption: Fell by 1.1%.
- Exports: Dropped by 2.2%.
- Formation of Fixed Capital: Declined by 0.5%.
On the other hand, public consumption rose by 1.1%.
Sector-wise Analysis
- Agriculture: Grew by 4.8%, significantly lower than the 79.8% increase in Q2 2024.
- Fishing: Declined by 42.2%, reversing the 39.1% growth seen in the previous year.
- Mining and Quarrying: Continued its growth above 6% consistently.
- Industry: Increased by 6.9%, recovering from the 16.8% drop in Q2 2024.
- Construction: Rose by 10.6%, but it has not recovered the losses from 2024, similar to trade.
- Commercial Activity: Also did not recover from 2024’s losses.
The report from Vectorial suggests that July’s activity marked the end of the growth sequence observed in the first six months, partly due to the exhaustion of favorable base comparison effects that supported annual increases in previous months.
Expert Analysis and Future Outlook
Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at Equilibra, warns: “Initial August activity indicators suggest the recessive trend has deepened (except for automobiles). If this is confirmed, economic activity would have transitioned from stagnation to contraction between Q2 and Q3 of 2025.”
The Leader index, developed by the Financial Research Center at Di Tella University, indicates a 98.61% probability of exiting the economic activity expansion phase (entering a recessive cycle) in the coming months, significantly higher than July’s 56.16%.
Government Expectations vs. Expert Analysis
Despite the expert analysis suggesting a potential recession, the Argentine government anticipates economic growth to close out 2025 at 5.4%. This projection is based on a 12.2% interannual increase in total output, driven by a 38.3% rise in imports of goods and services, along with a 32.1% growth in gross fixed capital formation and a 3.3% increase in exports.
