Background on Julio Ruiz and His Relevance
Julio Ruiz, the Chief Economist at Citi, is a prominent figure in Mexico’s financial sector. His expertise and insights are highly regarded, making his projections on Mexico’s economic growth significant for investors, businesses, and the general public.
International Organizations’ Optimistic Outlook
International organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have recently adjusted their growth projections for Mexico upwards. This positive outlook suggests they anticipate a rebound in economic activity during the second half of 2025.
Divergent Views Among Analysts
Despite the IMF’s optimistic projection, only two out of 38 private sector analysts surveyed by Citi expect a contraction in Mexico’s economy for 2025. These analysts are from Valores Mexicanos Casa de Bolsa (Valmex) and Scotiabank México, forecasting a 0.1% decline in GDP.
Ruiz’s Perspective on Mexico’s Economic Outlook
Citi’s Projection: Citi anticipates a 0.1% GDP growth for 2025, which Ruiz acknowledges is slightly lower than the FMI’s revised estimate.
Ruiz’s Calculation: Ruiz calculated that Mexico’s economy would need to register growth of 1.4% in the third and fourth quarters to meet the FMI’s projection.
Challenges Ahead: Ruiz emphasized that the prevailing uncertainty and ongoing trade negotiations make it difficult to predict whether Mexico’s economy will reach the levels assumed by the IMF.
Market Consensus for 2026
Citi’s Market Consensus: Citi’s market consensus anticipates a 1.3% growth for Mexico’s economy in 2026, slightly lower than Citi’s own calculation of 1.4%.
Ruiz’s Surprise: Ruiz expressed surprise at the downward adjustment in the market consensus for 2026, as economic activity has performed relatively better than expected.
T-MEC Agreement Impact: Ruiz believes that the T-MEC agreement should reduce uncertainty in Mexico’s economy, making a significant revision of the growth projection unlikely.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is the current outlook for Mexico’s economic growth in 2025?
A: Citi projects a 0.1% GDP growth for Mexico in 2025, while the FMI has revised its estimate to 1.5%. The Mexican government projects a 2.3% growth for the same year.
- Q: Why are there differing opinions among analysts regarding Mexico’s economic growth?
A: Each analyst, international organization, and the government’s economic team uses different estimation models with varying assumptions. While some anticipate a contraction, others, like Citi, expect modest growth.
- Q: What factors contribute to the uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s economic growth?
A: Prevailing uncertainty and ongoing trade negotiations make it challenging to predict Mexico’s economic performance accurately.
- Q: How does the T-MEC agreement impact Mexico’s economic outlook?
A: The T-MEC agreement is expected to reduce uncertainty in Mexico’s economy, potentially leading to a more stable growth projection.
