Introduction
As the world grapples with the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping has seized the opportunity to position China as a stable and reliable alternative. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, Xi presented a multipolar sovereign alternative to Western leadership and criticized Trump’s unilateral coercive measures.
The Global “G Zero” Landscape
In this era of the “Global G Zero,” where no single country has the capacity and willingness to establish global rules, Trump’s unpredictability has made the U.S. less reliable. This has prompted numerous world leaders, mostly from Asia and the Global South, to seek diversification in their relationships, moving away from the U.S.
Implications of Trump’s Policies
- Trade: Trump imposed broad tariffs, withdrew from formal agreements, and forced even close allies to engage in transactional negotiations.
- Technology and Security: Trump’s actions have led countries to adopt defensive postures, seeking concessions from the U.S. to avoid further escalation. Simultaneously, they are exploring alternatives for reducing future exposure to U.S. policy changes in areas like trade, financial infrastructure, and supply chains.
China’s Strategic Advancement
China has taken note and presented itself as a stable actor committed to multilateralism, long-term agreement compliance, and “non-interference.” At the SCO summit, Xi emphasized that China would maintain its agreements, unlike the U.S., which has become increasingly unpredictable and unreliable.
China’s Alternative at the SCO Summit
The SCO summit results were modest, but the message was powerful: even governments that may not share China’s worldview were seeking options to build resilience against U.S. unpredictability.
- India’s Example: Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China after seven years, signaling that India is looking for alternatives to resist U.S. pressure. However, China will not replace the U.S. as India’s primary strategic, economic, or technological partner due to ongoing disputes and public sentiment.
Limitations of China’s Influence
Despite its growing global influence, China’s diplomatic clout remains far behind its economic significance. Its rhetoric often lags behind actions in non-regional conflicts, and the SCO, while expanding its membership, lacks a unifying purpose due to divergent interests among its members.
- SCO’s Future: The organization has moved beyond its original goals of counterterrorism and climate change but hasn’t found a unifying purpose. Its growing membership with diverse interests will hinder deep coordination.
Recommendations for the U.S.
For the U.S., the solution is clear: regain its status as a reliable partner. This involves avoiding surprise tariffs on allies, adhering to negotiated agreements, and demonstrating more consistency in fulfilling long-term commitments.
Conclusion
While China’s strategic advancement offers a contrast to U.S. unpredictability, the gradual shift in global gravity towards Asia will continue as long as the U.S. fails to regain its reliability.
About the Author
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, is a member of the United Nations High-Level Panel on Artificial Intelligence.
