Introduction
In Mexico’s era of political alternance, citizen discontent with the political class has been the driving force behind change. The anti-PRIism, well understood by a strategic group led by Ramón Muñoz and Eduardo Sojo, propelled the PAN to Los Pinos for the first time, with an outsider (Vicente Fox) as their battering ram.
The Rise of Anti-Establishment Sentiment
A segment of the population finds the political class’s impunity unforgivable, while another group, benefiting from welfare programs, embraced the Obradorist discourse that demonized the “mafia of power” and eventually brought partisan leftism to Palacio Nacional after two failed attempts. Resentment overshadowed hope, leading to polarization.
Misreading Public Mood
An incorrect interpretation of the Mexican people’s social mood led the opposition alliance to choose Xóchitl Gálvez over the official candidate. Guido Lara’s study accurately detected public fears and hopes but couldn’t foresee the senator’s shortcomings. This colossal failure underscored that a campaign’s most crucial element is the candidate, not the electoral machinery supporting them.
The Impossibility of Defeating Obradorism in 2024
Defeating Obradorism in 2024 was deemed an impossible mission. A year after the claudicatory act, cracks in the Fourth Transformation’s second tier have accelerated a new oposition alignment (transcending political parties). This time, however, a diagnostic error cannot be tolerated.
The Space for Disruption
With massive abstention and constant confrontation with elites, including current leaders, a space for disruption emerges. Aggressive rhetoric garners ratings and likes, solidifying fanatical support while alienating the hesitant majority.
The Need for an Outsider Candidate
Frustration with politicians who don’t listen has led one in three Mexicans to view both Morenistas and opposition politicians as despicable. This presents an opportunity for an anonymous outsider, a fresh alternative.
Morena’s Strategic Error
Morena has made a clear mistake by arguing that their opponents are bad instead of highlighting why they are superior. This approach inadvertently affects everyone, including themselves.
Determining Factors of the 2025 Vote
In the Mexico of 2025, what will determine voters’ choices? Will citizens base their decisions on welfare programs, fear of criminal groups, or Donald Trump’s trade policy? Can the logic of the ruling party be broken, or will Morena implode?
The Path to Alternance
With the backdrop of mass abstention and ongoing conflict with elites, now including current leaders, a space for disruption opens. The President’s first-year struggles and her decision to maintain ties with Obradorism have paved the way for definitive alternance, despite pending electoral reforms.
Secondary Effects: Inclusive Outcomes
Inclusivity:
Parallel to the UN annual assembly in New York, a Global Summit Against Extremism took place, aligning leaders like Lula Da Silva (Brazil), Gabriel Boric (Chile), Pedro Sánchez (Spain), Gustavo Pedro (Colombia), and Yamandú Ors (Uruguay). Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has a reserved spot in this progressive club, tasked with countering the global rise of extremism. She is expected to attend the third summit in Madrid during summer 2026.
Key Questions and Answers
- What drives voters’ decisions in 2025? Voters may base their choices on welfare programs, fear of criminal groups, or Donald Trump’s trade policies.
- Can the ruling party’s logic be broken? There is a possibility of disrupting the prevailing political dynamics.
- Will Morena implode? The ongoing cracks within Morena and the President’s continued ties with Obradorism suggest a potential internal implosion.
