Key Economic Data and Context
According to the data from February released by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), the country’s economic activity reported its largest growth since April 2023, with a monthly growth rate of 1%.
Historical Context and Comparison
- This growth marks the highest expansion for Mexico’s economy since April 2023, when the monthly growth rate was 1.7%.
- The economy has shown two consecutive months of growth amidst a global environment of uncertainty.
- On an annual basis, the Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) reported a growth rate of 0.5%.
Sectoral Analysis
The monthly advance in February was attributed to a generalized growth across the three economic activities, with notable expansion in the industrial sector.
- Secondary activities, which include industries, registered a monthly growth of 2.5%, recovering from a -0.6% decline in January.
- Among these, manufacturing industries reported the highest expansion with a 2.9% monthly growth rate.
- Primary activities, referring to fishing, livestock, agriculture, hunting, and similar sectors, reported a monthly growth rate of 1%, lower than the 3.2% at the beginning of the year.
- Tertiary activities, which encompass services, saw an expansion of 0.6% in February compared to January, accelerating from the previous month’s 0.2% rate.
- Within this category, business support services, waste and debris management, and remediation services experienced the highest growth with a 2.5% monthly rate.
Government Projections and Criticism
Under the administration of Claudia Sheinbaum, the government projects an economic expansion between 1.5% and 2.3%. However, these projections have been widely criticized for their optimism amidst other institutions’ and organizations’ projections indicating either zero growth or even a contraction.
- Just days prior, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its projection downwards, estimating a contraction of 0.3%.
- The World Bank, on the other hand, forecasts zero growth for 2025.
- Claudia Sheinbaum, the president, expressed skepticism about these adjustments, stating that her administration’s economic models do not align with such projections.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the recent growth rate of Mexico’s economy? The Mexican economy reported a 1% growth rate in February, the largest expansion since April 2023.
- Which sectors contributed to this growth? The industrial sector, specifically manufacturing industries, saw the highest expansion with a 2.9% monthly growth rate.
- What are the government’s economic growth projections? The administration of Claudia Sheinbaum projects an expansion between 1.5% and 2.3%, but these projections have faced criticism for being overly optimistic.
- How do other institutions’ projections compare to the government’s? The IMF projects a contraction of 0.3%, while the World Bank forecasts zero growth for 2025, differing from the government’s more optimistic outlook.
