Background on Claudia Sheinbaum and Her Relevance
Claudia Sheinbaum is the current Head of Government (similar to a mayor) of Mexico City, serving since 2018. Previously, she was the Secretary of Environmental Affairs and Sustainable Development in Mexico City from 2012 to 2018. Sheinbaum is a prominent figure in Mexican politics, known for her work in environmental sustainability and social development. As the Head of Government of Mexico City, she plays a crucial role in shaping policies that impact millions of residents.
Alejandro Werner’s Estimations and Concerns
Alejandro Werner, former Deputy Secretary of Hacienda and Public Credit (SHCP) during Felipe Calderón’s administration, recently shared his concerns about Mexico’s public debt during an event organized by the Independent Commission for Equality with Fiscal Justice (CIJUF). Werner, now an ex-member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), highlighted that the projected growth is lower than expected, and the fiscal deficit along with the lack of a fiscal reform could push public debt to 62% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the end of Sheinbaum’s six-year term.
Discrepancy Between Government and Analysts’ Growth Estimates
Werner pointed out a discrepancy between the government’s growth estimates and those of analysts and institutions. He explained that, given these lower-than-expected growth rates, the public debt—measured by the Historical Balance of the Requerimientos Financieros del Sector Público (RFSP)—is likely to exceed projections.
Fiscal Deficit and Potential Impact on Public Debt
Werner mentioned that the planned rescue of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) might not be included in the RFSP, but the debt associated with this plan will still be considered public debt and will need to be serviced accordingly.
Public Debt Projections and Sustainability
According to the General Criteria for Economic Policy (CGPE) 2026, by 2030—the last year of Sheinbaum’s term—the expanded public debt is estimated to reach 52.3% of the GDP, with a projected fiscal deficit of 3% of the GDP.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the concern regarding public debt during Sheinbaum’s term? Alejandro Werner estimates that public debt could reach 62% of the GDP by the end of Claudia Sheinbaum’s six-year term due to lower-than-expected growth, fiscal deficit, and the absence of a fiscal reform.
- Why is there a discrepancy between growth estimates? There is a difference between the government’s growth projections and those of analysts and institutions, which has led Werner to believe that public debt might exceed initial expectations.
- How will the Pemex rescue plan affect public debt? Although this plan may not be included in the RFSP, the associated debt will still count as public debt and needs to be managed accordingly.
- What are the projected public debt levels by 2030? According to the CGPE 2026, expanded public debt is expected to be 52.3% of the GDP by 2030, with a projected fiscal deficit of 3% of the GDP.
