Background on the Situation
In 2019, approximately 18.3 million Mexican tourists visited the United States. By 2024, this number had decreased by 1.3 million to 16.99 million. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), an additional decline of 5.1% is projected for 2025, with the situation being even more severe for Canadian tourists.
Impact on Canadian Tourists
The WTTC reports that the decline in Canadian tourists traveling to the U.S. is expected to be more drastic, with a projected reduction of 20.2% by 2025. This translates to approximately 4.2 million fewer Canadian visitors, dropping from 20.241 million to around 16 million.
Consequences for the U.S. Tourism Industry
The significant decrease in tourists from North America will cause the U.S. to have its worst performance in international tourist arrivals since the COVID-19 pandemic. Canada and Mexico together account for 49% of international visitors to the U.S., making this decline particularly impactful.
Despite these challenges, the U.S. remains the world’s largest travel and tourism market due to its robust domestic demand. American tourists spent $1.5 trillion within their own country in 2019.
WTTC Report on the Sector’s Impact
The WTTC report weighs the impact of upcoming international sporting events in the U.S., such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Olympics, against the shifting sentiments towards the country.
The report projects a 6.9% decrease in international tourist revenue, making it the only major decline among top tourism-generating countries. Global tourism is expected to grow by 6.7% in 2025.
According to the WTTC, it will take until 2031 for U.S. tourism to recover from the pre-pandemic levels of 2019, despite substantial investments of $235 billion and $245 billion in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the projected decline in Mexican tourists visiting the U.S. by 2025? The WTTC projects a 5.1% decrease in Mexican tourists visiting the U.S. by 2025.
- How will the Canadian tourist numbers be affected? The WTTC anticipates a 20.2% reduction in Canadian tourists traveling to the U.S. by 2025.
- What factors contribute to the U.S. tourism industry’s challenges? The significant decline in North American tourists, coupled with the U.S.’s heavy reliance on these visitors (49% of international tourists), poses challenges for the U.S. tourism industry.
- What is the projected growth rate for global tourism in 2025? Global tourism is expected to grow by 6.7% in 2025.
- When is the U.S. tourism industry expected to recover from pre-pandemic levels? The WTTC estimates that U.S. tourism will not recover to 2019 levels until 2031.
