Introduction
The recent news about Pemex awarding a contract to Grupo Carso’s companies for drilling 32 wells in the Ixachi field for $1,991 million is a clear indication that the energy reform approved during President Peña Nieto’s administration had a significant rationale: that Pemex cannot, nor should it, face petroleum activity risks alone.
Background on the Energy Reform
Over the past seven years since the 4T administration began, numerous criticisms have been leveled against the 2013 energy reform, with its secondary legislation approved in 2014. The partnership between Pemex and Grupo Carso aligns with the rational objective of sharing the risk associated with developing petroleum fields in Mexico. In the current administration, this is achieved through a different vehicle: Mixed Development Contracts.
Sharing Risk: A Wise Policy
There is no doubt that sharing risk is a prudent policy. However, it should eventually be independently assessed whether the vehicle chosen by President Sheinbaum’s government is optimal, as each alternative involves costs and benefits for both Pemex and private investors.
Pemex’s Financial Situation
It is undeniable that Pemex’s operational and financial reality is pressing, with excessive outstanding payments to suppliers, high financial liabilities, and a production volume that has yet to stabilize and show sustained growth.
- In August last year, Pemex reported an average production of 1,373,000 barrels of crude oil per day, which is approximately 100,000 barrels less than the last month of President López Obrador’s term.
- In this context, welcoming mechanisms that enable Pemex to enhance its performance and reduce the risk borne by all Mexicans is essential.
Government Efforts and Fiscal Sacrifices
For Pemex to eventually pay Grupo Carso for the wells it may drill under the announced contract, along with other Pemex commitments, the federal government has made significant budgetary efforts through direct transfers of around 1 trillion pesos between 2019 and 2025. Additionally, substantial tax sacrifices have been made to reduce Pemex’s tax burden.
Grupo Carso’s Perspective
Grupo Carso’s statement in the last paragraph of their announcement to the Mexican Stock Exchange highlights their position: “These subsidiaries of Grupo Carso have experience in drilling wells in strategic fields such as Quesqui and Ixachi through service contracts with Pemex, where there are substantial outstanding balances for work already completed.”
- Despite Pemex owing significant amounts, Grupo Carso is willing to partner with the Mexican people’s oil company in the Ixachi field adventure.
- Grupo Carso is also prepared to wait until Pemex starts paying them as early as January 2027, indicating the substantial economic reward they expect.
Key Questions and Answers
- Is this partnership the most suitable? Given Grupo Carso’s substantial resources, there is a high probability that we may end up paying an inflated price for the risk these entities are willing to take.
- What does this mean for Mexican taxpayers? The federal government’s efforts, including budgetary transfers and tax sacrifices, should be evaluated to ensure the partnership’s economic suitability for both Pemex and private investors.
*The author is an economist.
