Introduction
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020) significantly reconfigured the Caucasus region. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Caucasus became a hotspot for ethnopolitical conflicts and “frozen” disputes, including South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, as well as the Armenia-Azerbaijan war. The 2020 conflict was not merely Azerbaijan’s recovery of territories occupied by Armenian forces since the Soviet Union’s dissolution.
Geopolitical Shifts
A non-Soviet country, Turkey, has become increasingly involved in post-Soviet geopolitical realities, opening doors to Central Asia and Ukraine through the Organization of Turkic States (2021). By September 2023, Azerbaijan regained sovereignty in Karabakh and, seven months later, succeeded in the withdrawal of Russian troops. The Russian role as a regional mediator seems to have waned.
Azerbaijan, capitalizing on its ties with Turkey and Israel, hosted a meeting on April 13, 2025, to reconcile interests between the two countries regarding Syria.
Iran, attempting to counterbalance this shift, has increased its presence in Armenia (opening a consulate in Kapan in October 2022) and aims to set boundaries by highlighting the threat posed by the proposed Zangezur Corridor, which would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenia’s Syunik region.
Armenia’s Geopolitical Transformation
Until 2020, Armenia was viewed as Russia’s partner. However, in January 2025, Yerevan established a Strategic Partnership with the United States, initiated a referendum towards European integration, and reduced Russian border guards’ presence at Zvartnots Airport and the Armenian-Iranian border (only Russia’s 102nd Military Base remains in Gyumri).
Georgia’s Stalled European Integration
Georgia, the Western Caucasus’ western bastion, froze integration talks with Europe after the European Parliament rejected the legitimacy of Georgian parliamentary elections. The West sanctioned Georgia for adopting Russia-like legislation, and the United States suspended its Strategic Partnership of 2009. Russia no longer requires visas from Georgians and resumed flights. Georgia eliminated visa requirements for China, which reciprocated within six months; their relations are declared strategic.
Azerbaijan’s Balancing Act
Azerbaijan seeks equilibrium between the West, the United States, Turkey, Iran, Israel, Russia, and China. Russia’s neutrality in the 2020 and 2023 Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict signaled proximity to Russia. In February 2022, two days before Russia invaded Ukraine, they signed the Allied Cooperation Declaration. However, it failed to materialize geopolitically, and the aerial tragedy in Aktau (when Russia shot down an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft in December 2024, resulting in 67 deaths) exposed underlying tensions.
Central Asia’s Caucasus Link
Central Asian nations (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) are drawing closer to the Caucasus (Georgia and Azerbaijan, potentially including Armenia if it signs a peace treaty with Azerbaijan) to develop infrastructure and diversify European energy (hydrocarbons and electricity), promote China-Europe trade via the Trans-Caspian Route crossing the Caspian Sea.
All parties aim to strengthen political ties to counter the common neighbor, Russia, by attracting other powers.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the significance of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020)? The war reshaped the Caucasus region, altering geopolitical dynamics and alliances.
- How has Turkey’s involvement impacted the Caucasus? Turkey’s increased engagement has opened doors to Central Asia and Ukraine, fostering new partnerships in the region.
- What are Iran’s concerns regarding the Zangezur Corridor? Iran perceives this proposed corridor as a threat to its interests, as it would connect Azerbaijan’s exclave Nakhchivan to the main territory through Armenia’s Syunik region.
- How has Armenia’s relationship with Russia evolved? Armenia has shifted from being a close Russian partner to pursuing strategic partnerships with the United States and integrating with Europe, reducing its reliance on Russia.
- Why has Georgia’s European integration stalled? Georgia’s European integration efforts have been hampered by the European Parliament’s rejection of its parliamentary elections’ legitimacy and Western sanctions following the adoption of Russia-like legislation.
- What is Azerbaijan’s geopolitical strategy? Azerbaijan aims to balance its relationships with various global powers, including the West, the United States, Turkey, Iran, Israel, Russia, and China, while navigating tensions with its neighbors.
- How is Central Asia linked to the Caucasus? Central Asian nations are collaborating with the Caucasus to develop infrastructure, diversify energy resources, and promote trade between China and Europe via the Trans-Caspian Route.
