Background on the Mexican Public Debt Situation
The Mexican public debt, measured as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is projected to reach a historic high of 52.3% by the end of this year, according to an upward revision made by Mexico’s Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) in the 2026 Economic Package.
Government Projections and SHCP’s Adjustment
Initially, the federal government had projected that the Historical Aggregate Requirements of Public Sector Financing (SHRFSP), a broad measure of public debt, would be 51.4% of the GDP for this year.
However, in the projections included in the 2026 Economic Package, the SHCP raised this estimate to 52.3% of the GDP, a historic level not reached even during the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2020 economic crisis.
The SHCP stated, “The SHRFSP will be 52.3% of the PIB, confirming that despite international volatility, public debt maintains a stable and sustainable trajectory, backed by solid macroeconomic fundamentals and prudent fiscal management.”
Future Projections and Analyst Opinions
For 2026, Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration expects the debt to remain at 52.3% of the GDP, considering it a “stable and sustainable path in the medium term.”
However, an analysis by the Center for Economic Research and Budgeting (CIEP) pointed out that while this indicator reflects an economy’s ability to face its liabilities, it does not show the fiscal position of the government or the population to address these obligations. Therefore, other indicators are needed to provide fresh perspectives on the costs and implications of observed borrowings.
Additionally, the projection for the Requerimientos Financieros del Sector Público (RFSP) was also increased from 3.9% to 4.3% of the GDP for this year and is expected to decrease to 4.1% in the following year.
Analysts Agree: The Debt Level is Manageable
Manageability of the Public Debt
Although the broad public debt as a percentage of GDP will reach a historic high this year, analysts agree that it is a manageable level, especially considering the prudence shown by the finance ministry regarding public finances.
Pau Messeguer, chief economist at Multiva, stated that the debt level is manageable, with a solid commitment from the government to achieve “healthier” public finances through better tax collection.
“There is a responsibility on the part of the government to achieve fiscal consolidation… significant efforts have been made to direct public demands and achieve consolidation,” Messeguer noted.
Julio Ruiz, chief economist at Citi Mexico, echoed this sentiment, stating that the idea is for the debt to stabilize at 52.3% of the GDP, and although the deficit reduction may take longer than anticipated, it is a positive sign that the government is taking steps to reduce it.
“What we need to see is that this fiscal consolidation will indeed take place, meaning that spending will be controlled on one hand and that estimated tax and petroleum income targets are met,” Ruiz added.
