Background and Relevance of Banamex
Banamex, previously known as Citibanamex, is a significant player in Mexico’s banking sector. Following Citi’s rejection of Grupo México’s offer for 100% of Banamex’s assets, Citi announced plans to list Banamex on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV). This move will make Banamex the third-most valuable bank by market capitalization, trailing only behind Banorte and Inbursa.
Current Market Capitalization
The combined market capitalization of the five publicly traded banks on the Mexican Stock Exchange is approximately 945,310 million pesos, accounting for around 15.53% of the total market value of the 35 companies in the S&P/BMV IPC index.
Banamex’s market value would be around 168,000 million pesos after Fernando Chico Pardo’s acquisition of 25% of Banamex for 42,000 million pesos. This value is surpassed by Banorte’s 486,790 million pesos and Inbursa’s 291,270 million pesos.
Expert Opinions
Brian Rodríguez, an analyst at Monex Casa de Bolsa, emphasized the importance of Banamex in Mexico’s banking sector and its significant size, stating that the listing should result in high liquidity. He added that Banamex would be one of the major banks, only below Banorte, in terms of size.
Julián Fernández, head of Financial Analysis at Grupo Bursamétrica, commented that Banamex’s entry into the stock market would be a turning point for Mexico’s bourse ecosystem. He stated that it would increase the BMV’s depth and visibility, both nationally and internationally, as an iconic institution with significant weight in the financial system.
Impact on Competition
According to Barclays, Banamex’s sale and restructuring, along with a decrease in interest rates, will have implications for competition within the financial sector. Banamex holds a substantial position in the market, with 8% of deposits and 6% of loans, placing it in sixth place among Mexican banks.
Barclays predicts that Banamex will continue to lose market share in the short term but will increase competition for publicly traded banks in the long run.
Perspectives and Attractive Stocks
Barclays anticipates that listed bank results will advance in the third quarter, despite concerns over tariffs, Banamex’s resurgence, monopolistic practices investigations, and interest rate declines.
The analysts highlighted that bank stocks have shown strong performance throughout the year, with loan and deposit growth moderating. However, fundamentals and profitability prospects for 2025 remain positive.
Among the attractive bank stocks, Gentera’s shares, which own Compartamos Banco, have seen the highest increase of 85.39%, trading at 45.05 pesos. Banorte follows with a 29.16% rise to 173.04 pesos, while Regional has increased by 11.54% to 130.57 pesos.
Inbursa has seen a 10.56% rise to 47,97 pesos, and Banco del Bajío’s stocks have advanced 6.95% to 46.65 pesos per unit.
Interest Rate Impact
Bx+ noted that the 300-basis-point reduction in the Banco de México’s reference interest rate from the third quarter of 2024 to the same period in 2025 will affect the financial institutions’ margins and net income, which is expected to grow by 1.5% annually in the third quarter reported.
