Overview of the Situation
According to BBVA Research’s Consumer Confidence Big Data Indicator, Mexico’s private consumption lost momentum in September, declining by 0.3% compared to the previous month. This decrease is attributed to cautious consumers and economic uncertainty.
Key Findings
- Overall Decline: Private consumption dropped by 0.3% in September, with a 1.0% decrease in demand for services and a 0.6% decline in general goods consumption.
- Food Sector Growth: The food sector was the only bright spot, growing by 1.0% during the same period.
- Analyst Insights: Saidé Salazar, an analyst at BBVA Research, anticipates that private consumption will continue to show slow growth due to diminishing consumer confidence and lower real wage growth.
- Wage Growth: Real wage growth has slowed down to 3.7% in September compared to the same month last year, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year and 6.1 percentage points below its historical maximum of 9.8% in June 2023, according to data from the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS).
- Consumption by Channel: Online consumption decreased by 0.8%, while in-store consumption fell by 0.5% in the same period, following a 0.9% increase in August.
Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook
Saidé Salazar explained that consumer confidence has dropped by an average of 2.2% in September 2025 compared to the same period last year. Additionally, expectations for the country’s economic performance over the next 12 months have worsened, leading to a 4.4% decline in those expectations.
The analyst emphasized that internal demand, which includes both consumption and investment within the country, will remain weak throughout the year due to ongoing caution among households and businesses regarding the economy’s performance in the coming months.
Impact on Different Consumption Channels
BBVA Research’s report highlights the following trends in consumption channels:
- Restaurants: Consumption in restaurants fell by 4.4% month-over-month.
- Online Consumption: Online spending decreased by 0.8% and in-store purchases fell by 0.5% during the same period, following a 0.9% increase in August.
- Inter-Annual Comparison: Online consumption has seen an average growth of 118.1% during the first nine months of the year, compared to 31.2% in 2024. Meanwhile, in-store consumption has grown at an average rate of 0.9% for the same period, which is 6.1 percentage points lower than its historical maximum of 10.6% in 2024.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What caused the decline in Mexican private consumption?
A: The decrease was primarily due to cautious consumers and economic uncertainty. - Q: Which sectors experienced growth despite the overall decline?
A: The food sector was the only growing sector, with a 1.0% increase. - Q: How has real wage growth performed in 2025?
A: Real wage growth has slowed down to 3.7% in September compared to the same month last year. - Q: What are the expectations for internal demand in Mexico?
A: Internal demand, including both consumption and investment, is expected to remain weak throughout the year due to ongoing caution among households and businesses. - Q: How have different consumption channels performed in recent months?
A: Restaurant consumption fell 4.4% month-over-month, while online and in-store consumption both decreased by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively, following a 0.9% increase in August.
