Overview of Argentina’s Economic Performance
The National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) in Argentina announced on Wednesday the August Estimatory Monthly Activity (EMAE) data, which showed a growth of 2.4% in the year-over-year comparison and 0.3% compared to July on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Key Sectoral Performance
Ten out of the ten sectors that make up the EMAE showed increases in August, including Financial Intermediation (26.5% year-over-year) and Exploitation of Mines and Quarries (9.3% year-over-year). Financial Intermediation had the most significant positive impact on the EMAE’s year-over-year variation, followed by Exploitation of Mines and Quarries.
However, five sectors experienced declines in the year-over-year comparison. Industries Manufacturing (-5.1% year-over-year) and Wholesale, Retail, and Repair Trade (-1.7% year-over-year) negatively affected the EMAE’s overall growth by 1.06 percentage points.
Economic Context and Government Expectations
The economic activity entered the least dynamic semester of the year in July, primarily due to the completion of the coarse crop’s liquidation. The reduction in export taxes extended this trend until early August, before the 7-point cut was definitively prolonged. The rise in interest rates over the past few months, affecting credit—a significant driver of activity since mid-2024—along with currency volatility and subdued consumption, suggested that economic activity would be adversely affected.
Nonetheless, the government remained optimistic about the growth rate and anticipated a new boost in the typically slower July-September quarter following the temporary removal of export taxes.
Sector-wise Activity
- Financial Intermediation: 26.5%
- Exploitation of Mines and Quarries: 9.3%
- Net Taxation of Subsidies: 8.7%
- Hotels and Restaurants: 6.4%
- Real Estate, Business, and Rental Activities: 2.9%
- Transportation and Communications: 2.6%
- Social and Health Services: 1.5%
- Construction: 1.5%
- Education: 1.1%
- Fishing: 0.8%
- Public Administration and Defense: -0.4%
- Agriculture, Forestry, and Hunting: -1.4%
- Electricity, Gas, and Water: -1.6%
- Wholesale, Retail, and Repair Trade: -1.7%
- Manufacturing Industries: -5.1%
Expert Forecasts and Challenges Ahead
According to Orlando Ferreres’ IGA, the overall activity level grew by 5.5% year-over-year in August 2025, accumulating an 5.8% increase over the first eight months of the year. The seasonally adjusted measurement showed a 0.7% increase compared to the previous month.
“Beyond August’s rebound, the outlook moving forward is challenging: currency tensions and the government’s political setbacks have increased uncertainty about an already sluggish economic pace,” experts noted.
Key Questions and Answers
- What was the EMAE growth in August 2025? The EMAE grew by 2.4% in the year-over-year comparison and 0.3% compared to July on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Which sectors showed positive growth in August 2025? Financial Intermediation (26.5%), Exploitation of Mines and Quarries (9.3%), Net Taxation of Subsidies (8.7%), Hotels and Restaurants (6.4%), Real Estate, Business, and Rental Activities (2.9%), Transportation and Communications (2.6%), Social and Health Services (1.5%), Construction (1.5%), Education (1.1%), and Fishing (0.8%) all showed positive growth.
- Which sectors experienced declines in August 2025? Industries Manufacturing (-5.1%), Wholesale, Retail, and Repair Trade (-1.7%), Public Administration and Defense (-0.4%), and Agriculture, Forestry, and Hunting (-1.4%) all experienced declines.
- What challenges does the Argentine economy face moving forward? Currency tensions and political setbacks have increased uncertainty about an already sluggish economic pace, according to experts.
