Introduction
Throughout this year, I have emphasized my contributions highlighting that despite the country’s significant challenges, we are far from the most radical and despairing predictions for Mexico by 2025. Among the decisions we must address as a nation, some have greater potential to alter Mexico’s course, and among those, defining the parameters for renewing our commercial relationship with the United States is particularly important.
Global Interest in USMCA’s Future
I am relieved to report that, during my travels across Mexico and abroad in recent months, the topic of the USMCA’s future has been a prominent subject in every forum – from business chamber meetings on Mexican beaches to agribusiness forums in Toronto and policy discussions in Washington, D.C.
The agreement has become an unavoidable reference point in any economic conversation. Beyond the obvious economic and trade reasons, it seems that many are following the USMCA’s developments because it is not merely a legal instrument but a reflection of the advancement of protectionist and discriminatory U.S. policies. If Mexico and Canada accept U.S. radical demands without restrictions, other countries’ chances of having a relatively normal trade relationship with Washington will virtually disappear.
Risks of Protectionism
The risk of this happening is not theoretical. In recent years, we have witnessed the resurgence of protectionism disguised as industrial policy, unilateral measures justified by economic security concerns, and extractive mercantilism threatening to fragment supply chains built over decades.
The “Make America Great Again” nativist economic approach disregards the very logic of economic integration in North America.
However, North America theoretically has a structural advantage: proximity, market size, complementarity, and an institutional framework that could make the region a dynamic axis of global trade if maintained. If Washington disregards this, what can other countries expect?
USMCA Review as a Strategic Opportunity
The USMCA review in 2026 should be seen as a strategic appreciation of the role of trade openness. All three countries should update commitments but not question principles; modernize disciplines, not dismantle them. The USMCA can be strengthened by incorporating topics like energy transition, digitalization, and sustainable agriculture, provided there is a predictable framework that fosters investment and competition.
Responsibility to Mexican Society
I am not suggesting that we have the responsibility to “save” the global trading system. Our government and businesses’ primary responsibility is to Mexican society. However, it is equally clear that if the rules supporting the world’s economy are destroyed and we move to a “Wild West” system, Mexico will suffer in the long run.
The USMCA Debate: A Reflection on Our Desired Economy
The USMCA 2026 debate will transcend technical aspects. It is fundamentally a discussion on the type of economy we want to build: one based on cooperation and shared rules or one that retreats towards fragmentation and fear.
After attending numerous forums, meetings, and airports, my reflection is simple: the USMCA will be reviewed not only by governments but also by history. Denying North America’s interdependence will not make us freer; it will make us more vulnerable.
The world, which is currently observing us, will take note of whether Mexico chose to advance with foresight or retreat for convenience.
*The author is a research professor at the Universidad Panamericana and previously worked in the Mexican federal government on international trade negotiations for two decades.
