Background and Relevance of the Situation
More than 20 states in Mexico are experiencing a farm crisis, with producers taking to the streets to demand government intervention. The situation has escalated to its highest level, with Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, proposing an “integral solution” that includes long-term support and adjustments.
The Root of the Problem
The current crisis can be traced back to the previous administration, with farmers alleging that policy changes and cyclical international price increases have contributed to their struggles. To defuse this “ticking time bomb,” more resources and a shift in agricultural policies are required.
Declining Profitability in Agriculture
According to the Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA), led by Juan Carlos Anaya, agricultural production costs have surged over 46% in the past five years. Meanwhile, international prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans have dropped between 30% and 50% since their 2022 peaks.
- Corn: The national average margin has plummeted from over 50% in 2022 to a mere 12% in 2025.
- Wheat and Sorghum: Similar trends have been observed, threatening the viability of thousands of medium and large-scale producers who supply over 75% of Mexico’s domestic and export markets.
This precarious situation has left farmers without market certainty, as they seek stability amidst international volatility. The absence of safety nets like the Ingreso Objetivo, Agriculture by Contract, and price coverage schemes has exacerbated the issue.
Historical Context and Escalation
The social unrest began in 2019 under the administration of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. He reoriented agricultural program funding towards direct support for small producers and assistance programs, leading to the disappearance of Ingreso Objetivo, agriculture by contract, and price coverage schemes.
While some social advances have been made, productivity and competitiveness have suffered. The crisis intensified last year, with 300,000 unsold tons of corn from the previous cycle in Sinaloa.
Government Response and Discrepancies
President Sheinbaum’s Proposed Solution
President Claudia Sheinbaum has pledged to address the crisis with an integral and long-term solution. The proposed budget, however, is only slightly more than double the amount allocated for 2026, at 13,500 million pesos.
Producers demand a reallocation of 35,000 million pesos and insist on a minimum price of 7,200 pesos per ton of corn, along with policy corrections for the agricultural sector.
Discrepancies in Pemex Payments to Suppliers
Recently, Pemex Director Víctor Rodríguez Padilla stated that the company has paid half of its supplier debt, totaling 300,000 million pesos, using the Pemex fund created in Banobras.
However, official figures from Pemex show a debt of 517,000 million pesos as of September, representing a 28.4% increase from the end of 2024. The debt to suppliers in dollars has risen by 37.1%, surpassing 28,000 million dollars, according to analyst Carlos Ramírez’s X post.
The discrepancy in these figures remains a point of concern, as the Fondo Pemex reported total disbursements of 29,197 million pesos.
