Background on Mexico’s Agricultural Exports
Mexico has experienced a remarkable growth in its agricultural exports over the past 15 years, tripling from $7.726 billion in 2010 to an estimated $23.511 billion by 2024, according to data from Banco de México. This growth has been fueled by the country’s diverse climate and geography, proximity to the US market, and availability of labor. Mexico exports a wide range of agricultural products, including tomatoes, peppers, raw coffee beans, citrus fruits, and fresh strawberries.
Decline in Agricultural Exports
However, Mexico’s agricultural exports fell at an annual rate of 8.7% in the first nine months of 2025, dropping to $16.272 billion. Several factors contributed to this decline, including reduced exports of live cattle due to the New World cattle tick, anti-dumping quotas on tomatoes, and certain water stress conditions.
US Import Restrictions and Anti-Dumping Duties
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that the US suspension of live cattle, horses, and bison imports from Mexico due to the New World cattle tick’s northward spread will increase Mexican demand for feed, as more livestock remains in the country for fattening.
Furthermore, on April 14, 2025, the US Department of Commerce announced its intention to withdraw from the Anti-Dumping Investigation Suspension Agreement on Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico of 2019, with an effective termination in 90 days. Following the agreement’s termination, the Department of Commerce imposed anti-dumping duties of 20.91% on most Mexican tomato imports on July 14, 2025.
The USDA anticipates that the implementation of these anti-dumping duties will result in reduced investment and planting by exporter-oriented tomato producers, particularly during the autumn-winter production cycle when export volumes are typically higher. From January to August 2025, Mexican exports of live cattle fell 72.4% to $335 million; cucumber exports dropped 22.9% to $480 million, and tomato exports decreased by 19.8% to $1.618 billion.
Complementary Agricultural Trade between US and Mexico
The agricultural trade between the US and Mexico is largely complementary, meaning that the US tends to export different products to the Mexican market than those Mexico exports to the US market. Approximately 73.3% of US agricultural exports to Mexico consist of grains, oilseeds, meat, or related products.
Mexico does not produce enough grains and oilseeds to meet domestic demand, so food and livestock producers in the country import significant quantities of these products to manufacture value-added items like meat, vegetable oil, and wheat derivatives (mainly for the domestic market). About 73.1% of US agricultural imports from Mexico comprise vegetables, fruits, beverages, and distilled spirits.
Growth in Mexican Agricultural Imports
Despite the decline in agricultural exports, Mexican imports of agro-food products grew at an annual rate of 4.2% from January to August, reaching $13.745 billion. Mexico primarily imports corn, milk and its derivatives, soybean seeds, wheat, and turnip or rapeseeds from around the world.
In the past decade, Mexican imports of agro-food products have risen from $12.379 billion to $20.433 billion.
Key Questions and Answers
- What caused the decline in Mexico’s agricultural exports? The decline was due to reduced live cattle exports because of the New World cattle tick, anti-dumping quotas on tomatoes, and water stress conditions.
- How have US import restrictions affected Mexican agricultural exports? The suspension of live cattle, horses, and bison imports from Mexico due to the New World cattle tick is expected to increase Mexican demand for feed, as more livestock remains in the country for fattening.
- What is the nature of agricultural trade between the US and Mexico? The trade is largely complementary, with the US exporting grains, oilseeds, meat, and related products to Mexico, while Mexico exports fruits, vegetables, beverages, and distilled spirits to the US.
- How have Mexican agricultural imports evolved? Despite the decline in exports, Mexican agricultural imports have grown at an annual rate of 4.2%, reaching $13.745 billion, primarily importing corn, milk, soybean seeds, wheat, and turnip or rapeseeds.
