Introduction
The 2025-2026 Cold Front Season in Mexico has begun, with the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) and the National Coordination of Emergency Services (CENAPRED) anticipating 48 cold front systems, slightly below the average expectation.
Season Details
According to Efrain Morales Lopez, CONAGUA’s General Director, and Fabian Vazquez Romana, General Coordinator of the National Meteorological Service (SMN), the season started in September 2025 and will end in May 2026.
Expected Cold Fronts
- 6 in November
- 7 in December
- 6 in January
- 5 in February
- 6 in March
- 5 in April
- 3 in May
This forecast considers the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENOS), which, although currently neutral, has a 60% probability of developing a weak and short-lived La Niña event in the fall. For Mexico, this typically translates to warmer and drier winters than usual, particularly in the north.
Temperature Outlook
The SMN highlighted that from September to November, warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across most of the country, with an anomaly of 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above the climatological average (1991-2020), primarily in the northern plateau and western regions. Conversely, the Sierra Madre Occidental is expected to have below-average minimum temperatures.
Call for Prevention
Nadia Leticia Tadeo Benítez, Director of the National Communication Center and representative of CENAPRED’s Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection, urged the public to adopt preventive measures and self-care during this season to minimize risks and protect health.
Key Recommendations
- Dress appropriately: Layer clothing (the “onion method”) and cover your face and head to protect against cold.
- Stay hydrated: Consume warm beverages and avoid rapid temperature changes.
- Avoid indoor heating hazards: Do not use stoves, braziers, or heaters to warm your home, as they produce carbon monoxide.
- Ventilation and attention to vulnerable groups: If using fireplaces or heaters, ensure proper ventilation. Pay special attention to vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, those with chronic illnesses, and pregnant women.
- Care for pets and wildlife: Remember that animals are also sensitive to cold temperatures.
