Introduction
According to new data from the United Nations (UN), global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.3% in 2024 compared to the previous year, prompting the UN to call for greater efforts from the most polluting nations.
Scientific Consensus and Consequences
Scientists agree that surpassing a 1.5°C increase from pre-industrial levels would have catastrophic consequences, necessitating all possible measures to avoid this outcome.
UN Report and COP30 Climate Summit
A report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) indicates that the world is on track to exceed this critical threshold in the coming years, following the 2024 record emissions.
The data release precedes the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, from November 10 to 21. With surpassing the 1.5°C threshold appearing inevitable, focus has shifted to limiting temperature increases to less risky levels.
“Our mission is simple, but not easy: to make any overshoot as small and short-lived as possible,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres during the report presentation.
Call for More Ambitious Action
The UN urges leading polluters, primarily responsible for the climate crisis, to commit to faster and more substantial emission reductions to bring the warming trend closer to 1.5°C by the end of this century.
“Ambition and action are far below what is needed globally or collectively,” said UNEP Chief Scientist Anne Olhoff. Even if all approved global targets were fully implemented, the warming would still be between 2.3°C and 2.5°C by 2100, according to the report.
Extreme Weather Events
The consequences would be disastrous for countries most vulnerable to sea-level rise and extreme weather events. Scientists have solid evidence that exceeding 1.5°C intensifies hurricanes, floods, and other natural disasters.
- At 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, most tropical coral reefs face extinction.
- Ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest could experience severe, lasting changes with global repercussions.
- The Paris Agreement mandates that each round of climate commitments must be more ambitious than the last to keep long-term warming “well below” 2°C and as close as possible to 1.5°C.
Despite obligations, only one-third of countries announced emission reduction targets for 2035 before the September 30 deadline, according to UNEP.
This year’s warming projections stand at 0.3°C, lower than last year, but Olhoff notes that only a small portion of this reduction is due to new commitments.
The 2024 record, with a 2.3% increase in global emissions compared to the previous year, was driven by India, followed by China, Russia, and Indonesia. This increase is significant compared to recent years, similar to the growth seen in the 2000s, according to the report.
Wealthy G20 economies accounted for three-quarters of global emissions. Among the top six polluters, only the European Union countries managed to reduce greenhouse gases in 2024.
