Tax Increase Estimations for Mexicans in 2026
According to Mexico Evalúa, each Mexican will, on average, pay an additional 2,023 pesos in taxes in 2026 due to adjustments made in the tax framework for products like soft drinks, cigarettes, serums, and violent video games. This brings the average per capita tax payment to 43,439 pesos in 2026, a 4.9% increase from 2025.
Purpose of the Tax Adjustments
The primary goal of these tax adjustments, known as the “healthy tax,” is to encourage consumers to reduce their consumption of unhealthy products like sugary drinks and cigarettes by increasing prices. However, there are concerns about the allocation of additional tax revenue.
Concerns Over Tax Revenue Allocation
Jorge Cano, coordinator of the Public Spending and Accountability Program at Mexico Evalúa, points out that additional tax revenue “is not clearly earmarked for health-related issues, specifically for people without social security.”
Bank of Mexico’s Inflation Concerns
A member of the Banco de México’s Governing Board acknowledges a potential inflation risk associated with the adjustments in the healthy tax.
- Potential Impact: The increase in the IEPS for certain products could mitigate the slowdown in the inflation of goods included in the 2026 forecast.
- Limited Impact: Another member of the board commented that the impact of the IEPS increase would be limited since these products account for only around 2% of the National Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation.
The Bank of Mexico recently raised its underlying inflation expectation for the first quarter of 2026 from 3.5% to 3.6%. This segment includes products with higher tax rates, such as soft drinks, cigarettes, serums, and violent video games.
Federico Rubli from the IMEF committee notes that these tax adjustments will put more pressure on inflation, ultimately affecting the pockets of Mexican consumers.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main reason for the tax increase? The primary goal is to discourage consumption of unhealthy products like sugary drinks and cigarettes through price increases.
- How will the additional tax revenue be used? There are concerns that it may not be clearly allocated to health-related issues, particularly for those without social security.
- What are the Bank of Mexico’s inflation concerns? There is a potential risk that the increase in IEPS for certain products could mitigate the slowdown in inflation of goods included in the 2026 forecast.
- How significant is the impact on inflation? While one board member suggests a limited impact, another points out that these products account for only around 2% of the National Consumer Price Index. The Bank of Mexico has recently raised its underlying inflation expectation for the first quarter of 2026.
