Introduction to Mexico Evalúa and its Relevance
México Evalúa is a non-profit organization dedicated to monitoring and evaluating public policies in Mexico. Their work is crucial as it provides insights into the effectiveness of government initiatives and highlights areas requiring immediate attention. In this case, their recent alert sheds light on a worrying trend in violence and disappearances across the country.
Rising Disappearance Rates in 20 States
According to México Evalúa, violence escalated by a third in one-third of the country during the first quarter of 2025, with a significant increase in disappearances reported in 20 states. The following table presents the percentage rise in disappearance rates per 100,000 inhabitants from 2024 to 2025:
- Aguascalientes: 31.7%
- Baja California: 1.5%
- Baja California Sur: 50.3%
- Campeche: 198.8%
- Ciudad de México: 139.1%
- Durango: 76.5%
- Guanajuato: 42.5%
- Guerrero: 7.1%
- Hidalgo: 44.7%
- Jalisco: 58%
- Edomex: 23.8%
- Michoacán: 39%
- Morelos: 59.4%
- Nayarit: 0.5%
- Oaxaca: 98.6%
- Puebla: 405%
- Querétaro: 130.8%
- Quintana Roo: 68.6%
- Sinaloa: 148.8%
- Sonora: 145.4%
Disappearances Outnumbering Intentional Homicides in 11 States
México Evalúa highlighted that during the first quarter of 2025, disappearances surpassed intentional homicides in 11 entities. Notably, the states of Edomex, CDMX, and Puebla experienced this concerning trend.
Key Conflicts Driving Violence
The think tank identified three major criminal conflicts at the national level: the internal dispute between Los Mayos and Los Chapos in Sinaloa, the clash between the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación, La Barredora, and its splinter group in Tabasco, and local conflicts in the CDMX involving La Unión, La Anti Unión, and microlocal organizations like the Peralvillo Cartel and Tláhuac cell.
Contextualizing the Impact
The escalating violence and disappearances have severe consequences for the affected communities, their families, and Mexican society as a whole. The increased criminal activity not only undermines public safety but also erodes trust in law enforcement agencies and the government’s ability to protect its citizens.
Moreover, these trends have implications for Mexico’s international standing. The country’s reputation as a hub for drug-related violence and organized crime continues to deter tourism, foreign investment, and economic growth. Addressing these issues is crucial for Mexico’s long-term stability and prosperity.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is México Evalúa? México Evalúa is a non-profit organization that monitors and evaluates public policies in Mexico, providing valuable insights into the effectiveness of government initiatives.
- Which states experienced the highest increase in disappearances? Aguascalientes (31.7%), Baja California Sur (50.3%), Campeche (198.8%), Ciudad de México (139.1%), Durango (76.5%), Guanajuato (42.5%), Hidalgo (44.7%), Jalisco (58%), Michoacán (39%), Morelos (59.4%), Oaxaca (98.6%), Puebla (405%), and Quintana Roo (68.6%) saw the most significant rise in disappearances.
- In how many states did disappearances surpass intentional homicides? Disappearances outnumbered intentional homicides in 11 entities: Edomex, CDMX, and Puebla.
- What are the main criminal conflicts driving violence in Mexico? The primary conflicts include internal disputes between drug cartels (Los Mayos vs. Los Chapos in Sinaloa), clashes between rival criminal organizations (Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación, La Barredora, and their splinter group in Tabasco), and local conflicts involving various factions in the CDMX.
