Introduction to the Mexican Consumer Spending Update
According to an early estimation by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), private consumption in Mexico experienced only marginal growth of 0.1% each for September and October.
Key Figures from the Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado (IOCP)
- September’s monthly increase: 0.1%
- October’s monthly increase: 0.1%
- September annual growth: 1.3%
- October annual growth: 2.2%
The IOCP provides an advanced economic estimation of the Indicador Mensual del Consumo Privado (IMCP). While the IMCP is published nine weeks after the reference month, the IOCP offers an initial estimation in two weeks and a more accurate one in six weeks.
Contextualizing Consumer Spending Trends
The IOCP and IMCP data reveal that, although private consumption remains more resilient compared to the other significant component of aggregate demand, it also displays a noticeable slowdown when contrasted with the dynamics of the past three years.
- By August, private consumption had accumulated a year-over-year decline of 0.3%, significantly lower than the 7.3% drop in fixed investment.
- The accumulated decline in consumption by October contrasts unfavorably with the 4.1% growth shown in August 2024.
- Growth rates for previous years: 4.1% in August 2023 and 4.9% in August 2022.
Contrasting Consumer Spending with Export Performance
In contrast to the consumer spending and investment dynamics, export performance shows growth. By September, Mexican exports of goods increased by 5.7%, surpassing the 3.2% growth from the previous year.
- This growth outpaces the increase in imports (+2.0%), supporting Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 0.5% by September 2025, according to Inegi’s early estimation published on October 30.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the Inegi? The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) is Mexico’s official statistics agency, responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating statistical data.
- What is the IOCP? The Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado (IOCP) is an early estimation of the Indicador Mensual del Consumo Privado (IMCP) provided by Inegi.
- Why is private consumption important? Private consumption, or household spending on goods and services, is a crucial component of aggregate demand in Mexico’s economy.
- How do export performances compare to consumer spending? Despite moderate growth in private consumption, Mexican exports have shown robust growth, contributing to the country’s GDP expansion.
