The Systems Dominating Mexico on Saturday
Cold Front 14 and Cyclogenesis (Northwest)
This system is the primary cause of weather impacts today. It will result in:
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall in the northern and central parts of Baja California.
- Heavy rainfall in the northwestern part of Sonora.
- Temperature drop and winds (60 to 80 km/h) in Baja California and Sonora.
- High waves (2.5 to 3.5 meters) on the western coast of Baja California.
- Snow or sleet in the northern mountainous areas of Baja California during the afternoon and night.
Dry Line (North of the Country)
This feature will be set up in northern Coahuila, leading to:
- Strong winds in Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Chihuahua, and Durango.
- Low-pressure systems and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean (southeast and Yucatan Peninsula) will create:
- Heavy rainfall in the southern parts of Chiapas and Quintana Roo.
- Showers in Oaxaca, Veracruz (Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca), Tabasco, Campeche, and Yucatán.
High-Pressure Circulation (Central Part of the Country)
This will maintain:
- Clear to partly cloudy skies.
- Stable weather conditions and no rainfall across most of the central region, including the Valle de México.
States with the Greatest Impacts
Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall
- Baja California (north and central) – up to 75 mm
- Sonora (northwest) – up to 50 mm
- Chiapas (south) – up to 50 mm
- Quintana Roo (south) – up to 50 mm
Showers
- Oaxaca
- Veracruz (Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca)
- Tabasco
- Campeche
- Yucatán
Isolated Rainfall
- Baja California Sur (north)
- Durango, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero
- Tamaulipas, Veracruz (Papaloapan), Puebla (Tehuacán-Sierra Negra)
Extreme Temperatures
Overnight:
- -10 to -5 °C with frost in the mountainous areas of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Durango.
- -5 to 0 °C in the mountainous regions of Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Edomex, Tlaxcala, and Puebla.
- 0 to 5 °C in the high-altitude areas of Coahuila, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Oaxaca.
Maximum Temperatures:
- 35 to 40 °C in Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and the coast of Chiapas.
- 30 to 35 °C in Baja California Sur, Sonora (coast and center), Chihuahua, Durango, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and southern Zacatecas.
Winds and Waves
Gusts of 60 to 80 km/h in:
- Baja California
- Gulf of California (north)
- Northwestern Sonora
Gusts of 40 to 60 km/h in:
- Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec (Oaxaca and Chiapas)
Wave heights:
- 2.5 to 3.5 meters: Western coast of Baja California
- 1.5 to 2.5 meters: Gulf of Tehuantepec (decreases by afternoon)
Valle de México
On Saturday, expect stable conditions:
- Clear to partly cloudy skies.
- No rainfall in Mexico City and the State of Mexico.
- Mexico City temperatures: Minimum 6–8 °C, Maximum 24–26 °C.
- Toluca temperatures: Minimum 2–4 °C, Maximum 22–24 °C.
Key Questions and Answers
- What weather systems are affecting Mexico on Saturday? Cold Front 14 and cyclogenesis in the northwest, a dry line in the north, and high-pressure circulation in central Mexico.
- Which regions will experience heavy rainfall? Northern and central Baja California, northwestern Sonora, southern Chiapas, and southern Quintana Roo.
- Where will showers occur? Oaxaca, Veracruz (Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca), Tabasco, Campeche, and Yucatán.
- Which areas will have isolated rainfall? Baja California Sur (north), Durango, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Tamaulipas, Veracruz (Papaloapan), Puebla (Tehuacán-Sierra Negra).
- What temperature extremes can be expected? Overnight lows ranging from -10 to -5 °C with frost in mountainous areas, and maximum temperatures between 30 to 40 °C in various regions.
- What wind and wave conditions are forecasted? Gusts of 60 to 80 km/h in Baja California, Gulf of California (north), and northwestern Sonora. Wave heights of 2.5 to 3.5 meters on the western coast of Baja California.
