Introduction
The far-right candidate José Antonio Kast won the Chilean presidential election last Sunday. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum was among the first to congratulate him. While her swift and proper gesture is noted, it doesn’t alter the underlying situation: Mexico concludes 2025 ideologically confined, regionally isolated, and strategically exposed as the T-MEC review approaches in 2026.
Shifting Political Landscape in Latin America
For years, Mexico’s diplomacy was a moral reference, an ethical arbiter advocating for sovereignty, non-intervention, and solidarity among like-minded governments. This approach worked while the region leaned leftward. Today, that map is shattered. Chile is moving towards a hard, pragmatic right; Argentina has shifted right with Milei; Peru and Ecuador have broken ties with Mexico; and Brazil and Colombia are too preoccupied with their own issues to support external leadership.
Consequences for Mexico
The outcome is straightforward: Mexico lacks interlocutors. The Pacific Alliance, once Mexico’s commercial crown jewel, is stagnant without Chile and Peru as active partners. In South America, relations with Argentina are marked by open distrust. In Central America, tensions with Bukele have weakened security cooperation along the southern border. When Mexico seeks political support from the south, it finds empty seats or hostile governments.
From Diplomatic Isolation to Economic Risk
This isolation, once perceived as diplomatic, now poses an economic risk. The T-MEC review serves as the test. Donald Trump, with his experience in exploiting weaknesses, understands this scenario well. A secluded Mexico becomes an easier target. Without regional allies, any block negotiation vanishes, leaving only asymmetric bilateral negotiations.
T-MEC Review: A Political Battleground
The T-MEC review won’t be technical or legal; it will be political and tough. Trump aims to impose conditions, targeting security first—Mexico’s political support for regimes like Nicolás Maduro’s will be framed as a strategic contradiction. Second, China is in his crosshairs, despite Marcelo Ebrard’s denials about new tariffs’ targets. Lastly, migration will be used as a bargaining chip through trade.
Mexico’s Depleted Political Capital
Despite optimistic market signals and record-high stocks, Mexico’s external political capital is exhausted. President Sheinbaum acknowledges Kast’s victory as a moment for progressive Latin American movements to reflect. However, while reflections occur, Trump negotiates—and in his playbook, a lone government signals an opportunity to strike hard.
Key Questions and Answers
- Who is José Antonio Kast? Kast is a far-right Chilean politician who won the presidential election, signaling a shift in Latin America’s political landscape.
- Why is Mexico’s isolation significant? Mexico’s regional isolation poses an economic risk, especially with the upcoming T-MEC review in 2026.
- What are the potential areas of conflict in the T-MEC review? Security, China’s role, and migration are key areas where tensions may arise during the review.
