Overview of Mexico’s Agricultural Growth by Grupo de Consultores de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA)
According to the estimations by Grupo de Consultores de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA), Mexico’s agricultural sector is on track for sustained growth, with projections indicating expansion in both volume and value by 2026.
Key Projections for 2026
- Total agroalimentary production: 288.5 million tonnes, with an economic value of 1.96 billion pesos.
- Annual growth: 2.4% in volume and 2.8% in value compared to 2025.
Pecuary Segment: The Main Value Driver
The pecuary segment is projected to be the primary value contributor, with an estimated 1.01 billion pesos in value – a significant 21.3% increase. This growth is attributed to the robust domestic market, despite health challenges.
- Volume production: Stable at 26.04 million tonnes, with a 0.9% growth.
Grains and Oilseeds Subsector: Overcoming Structural Challenges
The grains and oilseeds subsector, facing structural challenges in self-sufficiency, is expected to show notable growth in 2026. Production is projected to increase by 9.8% to reach 37.9 million tonnes, with a potential 20.4% rise in value to 278.7 billion pesos, largely due to the boost from corn.
Horticulture and Fruit Sector: Moderate but Steady Growth
The horticulture and fruit sector projects moderate yet firm growth. Production volume is expected to reach 44.63 million tonnes, a 1.8% increase, while the economic value is projected to grow by 7.0%, reaching 569.4 billion pesos. However, this subsector will need to navigate the loss of competitiveness in currency affecting general exports.
Agroindustrial Sector: Steady Production and Value Growth
The agroindustrial sector anticipates a production of 55.40 million tonnes (+2.3%) and a value of 116.7 billion pesos (+3.0%). Meanwhile, forage production, crucial for the pecuary chain, is estimated at 125.96 million tonnes (+2.0%) with a value of 165.4 billion pesos (+3.1%).
Challenges Ahead
Juan Carlos Anaya, GCMA’s general director, cautioned that 2026 will be a challenging period for Mexico’s agricultural sector due to market factors and the institutional and commercial environment.
- Market and institutional factors: The review of the Trading Agreement between Mexico, the United States, and Canada (T-MEC), high production costs, and rural insecurity are elements of uncertainty that will affect Mexico’s agricultural performance in the medium term.
