Introduction to the Mexican Agricultural Sector
Juan Carlos Anaya, the Director of Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA), has stated that 2026 will be a challenging year for the Mexican agricultural sector due to structural and external factors. Despite these challenges, the Mexican agricultural sector is expected to grow steadily in 2026, provided that productive momentum is maintained and public policies align with the sector’s real needs.
Overall Projections for 2026
According to the GCMA’s experts, the Mexican agricultural sector is projected to see moderate growth in both volume and value by the end of 2026. The total agricultural production is expected to reach 288.5 million tonnes, marking a 2.4% increase from 2025. The economic value of the sector is projected to hit 1.96 trillion pesos, reflecting a 2.8% annual growth.
Key Subsectors and Their Projections
Pecuary: This subsector is expected to be the primary driver of economic growth in agriculture. Production is projected to reach 26.04 million tonnes, a near 1% increase, but with a significant 21.3% rise in value, reaching 1.01 trillion pesos.
Grains and Oilseeds: The GCMA anticipates substantial growth for 2026, with a projected production of 37.9 million tonnes—nearly a 10% annual increase, largely driven by maize. The value of this subsector is also expected to rise by 20.4%, reaching 278.7 billion pesos.
Horticulture and Fruits: Historically a strong export-oriented sector, horticulture and fruits are projected to see moderate growth. Production is expected to reach 44.63 million tonnes, a 1.8% increase, with a value of 569.4 billion pesos—a projected 7% growth.
Agroindustry: This sector, which involves the transformation of agricultural products, is also expected to grow in 2026. Production is projected at 55.4 million tonnes, a 2.3% increase, with an economic value of 116.7 billion pesos—a 3% rise from 2025.
Fodder: Essential for the livestock chain, fodder production is projected to reach 125.96 million tonnes, a 2% increase, with a value of 165.4 billion pesos.
Challenges and Policy Implications
Despite the positive outlook, Anaya highlighted that 2026 will be a challenging year for the Mexican agricultural sector due to structural and external factors. Among these, he mentioned the possible review of the Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá (T-MEC), which could impact highly integrated production chains like grains and livestock.
Anaya emphasized that uncertainty among producers stems from the T-MEC review and international market volatility. He urged Mexico to strengthen its negotiating position and adopt measures that safeguard the competitiveness of its products.
Moreover, an appreciated exchange rate and the expectation of lower international prices for key products like maize and wheat could limit farmers’ income margins. Anaya stressed the importance of aligning public policies with the agricultural sector’s productive potential, ensuring investment, innovation, and market access support.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the projected growth for Mexican agriculture in 2026? The Mexican agricultural sector is expected to grow 2.4% in volume and 2.8% in value by 2026.
- Which subsectors are expected to drive growth? The pecuary subsector is projected to be the primary driver of economic growth, followed by grains and oilseeds.
- What challenges does the Mexican agricultural sector face? Challenges include potential T-MEC revisions, international market volatility, exchange rate appreciation, and rising input costs like fertilizers, energy, and logistics.
- How can public policies support the agricultural sector’s growth? Policies should favor investment, innovation, and market access to convert the sector’s productive potential into sustainable growth.
