Key Trends and Insights
According to the BBVA Research Consumer Index based on Big Data, Mexican household spending grew by a modest 0.5% in November, indicating a moderation in consumer spending as the year draws to a close due to persistent economic uncertainty and lower real wage growth.
Spending Breakdown
- Goods: Spending on goods increased by 0.4% month-on-month, continuing the low momentum observed since September.
- Services: The services sector grew by 1.0% month-on-month, although it decelerated from the previous month’s 5.0% increase.
Saidé Salazar, Principal Economist at BBVA Research, explained that “the data suggests lower household spending towards the end of the year in an environment of prolonged uncertainty and slower real wage growth.”
Decline in Online Spending
By type of establishment, the report highlighted a 10.2% monthly decline in spending through online channels, the largest drop since January. Meanwhile, spending at physical stores grew by 0.5% month-on-month, the best result since August.
- Online Establishments: Annualized, spending at online establishments averaged a variation of 119.4% (compared to 42.7% in 2024), while spending at physical stores grew by an average of 1.3% during the same period (against 9.4% in 2024).
Spending by Category
The index revealed that spending on food increased by 2.2% month-on-month, while healthcare goods rose by 1.4%. Annually, spending on goods averaged 7.3% through November, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the figure recorded in 2024.
For services, restaurant spending rebounded by 7.1% month-on-month, marking its first positive data since August. Additionally, hotel consumption grew by 3.0%, the best performance since April.
However, entertainment services spending fell by 19.5% month-on-month, placing it 2.3 percentage points below the level observed at the beginning of the year. Annually, service spending averaged a growth of 10.2% through November, which is 4.8 percentage points less than in 2024.
Future Outlook
Despite the current slowdown, Salazar anticipates that household consumption will gradually improve in the coming quarters as employment, particularly formal jobs, begins to recover. She projects that private consumption will gradually recover over 2026 due to the improving real wage growth amidst diminishing uncertainty caused by sudden shifts in U.S. trade policy.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the overall growth rate of Mexican consumer spending in November? The growth rate was 0.5% in November, according to BBVA Research’s Consumer Index based on Big Data.
- Which sectors experienced growth, and which ones saw a decline? The services sector grew by 1.0% month-on-month, while goods spending increased by 0.4%. Online spending dropped by 10.2% month-on-month, but physical store spending grew by 0.5%. Annually, goods spending averaged 7.3%, while services grew by 10.2%.
- What are the projected trends for household consumption in the coming quarters? BBVA Research’s Principal Economist, Saidé Salazar, expects household consumption to gradually improve as employment opportunities, especially formal jobs, recover. She anticipates private consumption to gradually recover over 2026 due to improving real wage growth and diminishing uncertainty from shifts in U.S. trade policy.
