Background on Key Figures and Relevance
The delivery of water to the United States has raised alarms among Mexican farmers. The 2025 agricultural year has been particularly challenging for three out of six bordering states with the US, showing an increase in damaged crop hectares compared to 2024. This situation unfolds as severe drought conditions are expected to persist in the first half of 2026. Simultaneously, the Mexican government has emphasized that in the agreed-upon water delivery plan, under threat of tariffs by Donald Trump, the well-being of the population and farmers has been prioritized.
Detailed Analysis of Affected States
According to data from the Agroalimentary and Fisheries Information Service, Coahuila, Baja California, and Tamaulipas have experienced increases in damaged crops. For Tamaulipas, the hectares lost for the 2024 agricultural year amounted to 16,898, while by November of the previous year, there were already 19,762 affected hectares for the 2025 agricultural year.
For the 2026 agricultural year, which began in October of the previous year, Tamaulipas, with 87 affected hectares, alongside Nuevo León (79.75) and Sonora (0.03), are the only ones showing losses.
Government Recognition and Vulnerability
President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged on December 22 that although a water delivery plan to the US was agreed upon under a “minimal impact on farmers” scheme for Coahuila, Nuevo León, Chihuahua, and Tamaulipas, the latter is the most vulnerable due to its reliance on Rio Bravo water.
At the state level, Tamaulipas’ Secretariat of Water Resources reported on December 9, three days before the announcement of Mexico’s delivery of 249 million cubic meters (Mm³), that the main red flag was District 25, where sorghum and corn are grown and nearly 25% of the state’s farmers are located.
This district almost entirely depends on water from shared international dams with the US, which are currently nearly empty.
Alfalfa Under Pressure
Eraclio Rodríguez Gómez, leader of the Frente Nacional para el Rescate del Campo Mexicano (FNRCM), stated in an interview before the water delivery to the US began that alfalfa, maize, sorghum, various vegetables, and walnut would be the most vulnerable crops due to Mexico’s compliance with the treaty deficit.
The farmers’ leader, who negotiated the approval of the new Water Law with the federal government, highlighted that the impact could affect entire production chains since, for example, a reduction in water availability for alfalfa would increase its price and trigger a crisis in the dairy sector.
“If alfalfa production decreases, its price rises, and dairy producers face a crisis. Milk is one of the most sensitive products, where price changes are immediately reflected,” he warned.
Alfalfa is a primary crop in the six border states.
The Chihuahua Experience
To fulfill the delivery of over 240 million cubic meters to the US—out of more than 900 owed between 2020 and 2025—Mexico proceeded to drain Presa el Cuchillo in Nuevo León, primarily.
However, in 2020, Presa La Boquilla in Chihuahua was used to meet commitments, leading to confrontations between farmers and the National Guard, resulting in one death and injuries.
Victor Valderrain, a Chihuahua farmer, emphasized that the state leads nationally in chile verde, alfalfa, maize, watermelon, cantaloupe, beans, hazelnuts, and peanut production, crops heavily dependent on irrigation.
If water from the dam were to be used again, he said, it would impact the nation due to these being perishable and strategic for supply.
Valderrain explained that key dams for agricultural use, such as La Boquilla and Francisco I. Madero, have been critically low for years due to prolonged drought, causing them not to be opened for irrigation in the previous cycle.
“Due to the dam levels because of the drought last year, the agricultural cycle was virtually canceled in this region,” he pointed out.
According to the Center for Climate Prediction of the National Meteorological Service in the US, the border states with Mexico will experience below-average rainfall during the first months of 2026, though improvements are expected mid-year.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the issue at hand? The delivery of water to the United States has raised concerns among Mexican farmers due to increased damaged crop hectares in bordering states, particularly Tamaulipas, Coahuila, and Baja California.
- Which crops are most affected? Alfalfa, maize, sorghum, various vegetables, and walnuts are vulnerable due to reduced water availability for irrigation.
- Why are certain states more affected? Tamaulipas is the most vulnerable because of its reliance on Rio Bravo water, which is critically low due to prolonged drought.
- What is the significance of Chihuahua’s situation? Chihuahua, a leading producer of perishable and strategic crops, faces potential impacts on a national level if water from key dams is used for US delivery.
- What weather conditions are expected in border states? Below-average rainfall is predicted for the first half of 2026 in border states with Mexico, though improvements are expected mid-year.
