Introduction
The Mexican economy grew by approximately 0.5% in 2025, a figure that signifies mediocre growth, falling short of population growth and the average for Latin America, a region known for its slowest growth globally.
The Significance of the 0.5% Growth Rate
While some view this growth rate as disappointing, it’s essential to consider the broader context of 2025, a year marked by significant global and domestic changes. The Mexican economy is incredibly complex, as reflected by its high index of economic complexity (ranked 17th globally, above Italy and Spain), encompassing diverse sectors such as tourism, industry, mining, e-commerce, food and beverage production, entertainment, telecommunications, and even the criminal economy.
Sector-wise Analysis
- Industrial Activity: There has been a decline in manufacturing, mining, and construction. The manufacturing sector’s downturn is largely due to the tightened trade policies of the Trump administration. Meanwhile, mining’s slump can be attributed to the 4T government’s misunderstanding or hostility towards this sector, despite high global metal prices.
- Retail Sales: Despite the overall economic challenges, same-store sales increased by 3.2%, and total retail sales rose by 5.7%. This growth, however, represents a slowdown compared to 2024 and seems to contradict the pessimistic outlook suggested by consumer confidence indices.
Investment and Stock Market Performance
In a year marked by uncertainty, the Mexican stock market experienced an exceptional year. The IPC (Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones) surged over 30%, making 2025 its best year since 2009. The capitalization of listed companies grew by 43% in dollar terms, rising from $417 billion to $600 billion.
- Investor Opportunities: Investors identified lucrative opportunities in an undervalued market following a 13.7% drop in 2024. Low stock prices led to a rebound in shares like Cemex, while mining companies such as Peñoles and Grupo México benefited from rising international metal prices.
- Diversification: Mexico emerged as an attractive destination for capital diversification amidst a perception that the U.S. market was overpriced or even in a bubble.
Export Performance
Mexico’s export landscape presents an intriguing picture. Despite trade tensions with the U.S., sales to the north grew by 7%. However, this growth came from sectors other than automotive and agroalimentary exports, which declined by 14% and 19%, respectively. The rise in external sales during January-October was driven by electric and electronic equipment, machinery, and professional and scientific equipment.
Labor Market Analysis
Assessing the labor market in 2025 is challenging due to its complexity. The IMSS reported a record 22.84 million affiliated jobs by November 30, while the ENOE survey indicated 32.8 million workers in precarious employment conditions.
- Wage Growth: The average registered salary with the IMSS increased by 7% annually to 624.90 pesos per day.
Looking Ahead: The Uncertain 2026
Predicting the future remains challenging, with significant uncertainty looming. Embrace the chaos, as 2026 is likely to bring considerable changes.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What does the 0.5% growth rate signify?
A: It indicates mediocre growth, falling short of population growth and the average for Latin America.
- Q: How does the sector-wise analysis look?
A: There have been declines in manufacturing, mining, and construction, while retail sales have shown growth despite overall economic challenges.
- Q: How did the stock market perform in 2025?
A: The Mexican stock market had an exceptional year, with the IPC surging over 30% and capitalization of listed companies growing by 43% in dollar terms.
- Q: What can we infer from the export performance?
A: Despite trade tensions with the U.S., exports grew by 7%, driven mainly by electric and electronic equipment, machinery, and professional and scientific equipment.
- Q: How does the labor market look in 2025?
A: The labor market is complex, with record affiliations to the IMSS and a significant number of workers in precarious employment conditions.
