Experts Predict a Rebound in Consumer Spending for 2026
Following a challenging year for consumption in Mexico, 2026 is expected to see a rebound, driven by the World Cup, increased public spending, progress in investment projects, and a more favorable economic outlook, according to sector analysts.
“We anticipate a rebound in consumer spending for 2026, primarily due to the momentum of better economic growth – market consensus estimates an increase of 1.5% – and catalysts like the World Cup, which can boost tourism and sales in retail chains and restaurants,” explained Marisol Huerta, an independent consumer sector analyst.
Minor Sector Sales Weakness in 2025
Huerta referenced data from the National Association of Self-Service and Department Stores (ANTAD) showing minor sector sales weakness in 2025. The accumulated growth from January to November for establishments over one year old was 3.3%, while the same period in 2024 saw a 4.4% increase.
This slow economic growth and reduced consumer confidence are the reasons behind these figures, with Banco de México estimating a mere 0.3% growth. Jacobo Rodríguez, a financial specialist at Roga Capital, echoed this sentiment:
“If 2025 was difficult for consumption, 2026 will be a year of adaptation,” Rodríguez said. He pointed out that remittances sent to Mexico fell, contributing to weak consumer spending as many households rely on these incomes for daily expenses. This trend may persist.
From January to October 2025, remittances totaled $51,344.3 million, representing a 5.1% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, according to Banco de México data.
Economic Sector Reactivation and Job Creation
Both experts agreed that the reactivation of various economic sectors, such as manufacturing and construction, could generate more jobs. This increase in employment would raise the number of people capable of purchasing, thus fostering an upward trend in household spending.
“With new projects generated by Plan Mexico and the nearshoring revival, more jobs would be created. This rise in employment would act as an additional catalyst for consumption,” Huerta added.
“We expect government spending to be much more dynamic in 2026, with announced projects being implemented, increased public and private investment, which would translate into higher incomes for economic agents and households,” Rodríguez stated.
Risks to Recovery
Despite conditions that could favor internal consumption, experts warned about factors limiting recovery, including inflation, which has yet to stabilize or maintain a consistent downward trend.
They predict inflation may rise at the start of the next year, while tariffs recently announced by Mexico for countries without trade agreements could create an “additional inflationary shock.”
This is due to the new tariffs on Asian products and inputs causing durable consumer goods, like cars and appliances, to increase in price. Furthermore, businesses offering services and retailers may take the opportunity to temporarily raise prices during the World Cup, potentially driving inflation above expectations and limiting household purchasing power.
Annual inflation stood at 3.72% until the first half of December. Price increases for carbonated and non-carbonated beverages are expected following the implementation of the Special Production and Services Tax (IEPS). Additionally, Huerta noted that minimum wage hikes have reduced the purchasing power of those earning more than the minimum, further affecting internal demand.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What factors are expected to boost consumer spending in Mexico for 2026? A: The World Cup, increased public spending, progress in investment projects, and a more favorable economic outlook are anticipated to drive consumer spending growth.
- Q: How have remittances affected consumer spending in Mexico? A: Remittances to Mexico have decreased, contributing to weak consumer spending as many households depend on these incomes for daily expenses.
- Q: What role will job creation play in the anticipated consumer spending rebound? A: Job creation through various economic sector reactivations, such as manufacturing and construction, could increase the number of people capable of purchasing, thus fostering an upward trend in household spending.
- Q: What risks could limit the anticipated consumer spending recovery? A: Inflation has yet to stabilize, and recently announced tariffs on countries without trade agreements could create an additional inflationary shock, potentially limiting household purchasing power.
