Double-Digit Appreciation Despite Adverse Conditions
The Mexican peso demonstrated a robust performance in 2025, gaining nearly 14% against the US dollar despite a challenging trade environment. This outcome surpassed analysts’ expectations, especially given the risk aversion stemming from local policy changes, global trade, and geopolitical factors.
Key Achievements in 2025
- Nearly 14% Accumulation: The exchange rate closed 2025 at 18.0080 pesos per dollar, according to official Banxico records. This represented a gain of 2 pesos and 87 centavos, or 13.77%, compared to the 2024 closing rate of 20.8829 pesos per dollar.
- Unseen Level in 17 Months: The peso’s rate ended the year at a psychologically significant 18 units per dollar, a crucial level for traders due to its whole number value and implications.
- Reduced Risk Aversion: Throughout the year, the peso-dollar cross experienced broad movements. The difference between its highest (20.8235 units in January) and lowest (17.8626 units the previous Friday) levels was nearly 3 pesos or around 14.20%, indicating a decrease in risk aversion.
Historical Best Performance
According to Banxico data, the Mexican peso had its best year since the free-floating regime began in 1994. Prior to 2025, the record was 2023, when the dollar’s price dropped by 13%. In a year full of challenges, the currency’s strong performance surprised even the most experienced experts.
Outlook for Depreciation
Based on Banxico’s latest survey of private sector analysts, the exchange rate is expected to close 2025 at approximately 18.56 pesos per dollar. With the official closing, the peso outperformed expectations by 3%.
Looking ahead to the end of 2026, analysts predict a rate of 19.12 pesos per dollar, implying a 6% depreciation.
“The peso had an exceptional year, but 2026 will present challenges. The room for further appreciation is limited, though we might experience relative stability in the absence of risk events, which could positively impact productive activity,” said Juan Carlos Cruz Tapia, CEO of México Financiero.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What was the Mexican peso’s performance in 2025? A: The Mexican peso appreciated nearly 14% against the US dollar, outperforming analysts’ expectations despite a challenging trade environment.
- Q: What were the key achievements of the Mexican peso in 2025? A: The peso reached its highest level in 17 months, and risk aversion decreased significantly throughout the year.
- Q: How does the Mexican peso’s 2025 performance compare to previous years? A: The Mexican peso had its best year since the free-floating regime began in 1994, surpassing the previous record set in 2023.
- Q: What are the expectations for the Mexican peso in 2026? A: Analysts predict a depreciation of approximately 6% for the Mexican peso by the end of 2026.
