Background on Venezuela’s Economic Situation
In 2024, Venezuela’s annual GDP growth rate reached an estimated 5.3%, yet the country’s economy remained less than half its size in 2013, not adjusted for inflation. Despite this growth, income levels remain insufficient for most households to acquire basic necessities. According to a national survey conducted by a Venezuelan university, approximately 73.2% of the country’s 26.7 million population lived in poverty in 2024.
Trade Decline Between Mexico and Venezuela
Mexico’s trade of goods with Venezuela has fallen 11.4 times since its historical peak in 2008, showcasing one of the most significant declines in Mexico’s exchange of goods with a Latin American country.
- From January to October of each year, bilateral trade dropped from $2,698 million in 2008 to $236 million in 2025.
- In the first ten months of 2025, Mexican exports to Venezuela were valued at $205 million, a 0.5% interannual decrease.
- The record was set in 2008, with shipments totaling $1,972 million.
Mexico primarily exports organic surfactants (excluding soap), haircare preparations, fragrance substance mixtures, shaving preparation, petroleum oils, and medicines to Venezuela. In return, Venezuela exports certain seeds and oil-bearing fruits, as well as sawn or ripped cross-laminated timber to Mexico.
- From January to October 2025, Venezuela’s exports to the Mexican market totaled $31 million, marking a 1.1% annual increase.
- The highest previous amount was recorded in 2007, with $840 million.
Economic Factors Contributing to the Trade Decline
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that Venezuela’s GDP contracted more than 80% between 2013 and 2020, exacerbated by low international oil prices and decreased petroleum production.
In 2021, a report from the United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) revealed that US sanctions imposed on Venezuela’s oil industry since 2017 contributed to this economic decline.
Impact on Foreign Direct Investment
Venezuela’s foreign direct investment (FDI) to Mexico amounted to $23.6 million in the first three quarters of 2025, marking an 18.3% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, based on preliminary figures.
Venezuelan Migration and Refugees
According to UN agencies, there were approximately 7.9 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants worldwide in December 2024. By May 2025, around 6.9 million resided in Latin American and Caribbean countries.
US Sanctions on Venezuela
The US economic sanctions against Venezuela include financial, petroleum, and trade restrictions to pressure the government. These measures aim to limit income, isolate the regime, and promote political changes. However, they have worsened Venezuela’s economic crisis, access to financing, and social conditions.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current state of Venezuela’s economy? Despite a 5.3% annual GDP growth rate in 2024, Venezuela’s economy remains less than half its size in 2013, with income levels insufficient for most households to acquire basic necessities.
- How has Mexico-Venezuela trade evolved? Trade between the two countries has plummeted 11.4 times since its peak in 2008, with bilateral trade dropping from $2,698 million to $236 million (January-October) in 2025.
- What factors have contributed to the trade decline? Factors include low international oil prices, decreased petroleum production, US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry since 2017, and reduced foreign direct investment from Venezuela to Mexico.
- What is the situation of Venezuelan migrants and refugees? There were approximately 7.9 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants worldwide in December 2024, with around 6.9 million residing in Latin American and Caribbean countries by May 2025.
