Background on the Situation
The Mexican meat industry anticipates a 3.1% decrease in beef consumption by 2026, influenced by various operational costs, the cattle tick infestation, and import quota restrictions. This outlook was shared by the Mexican Council of Meat (ComeCarne), led by Director Macarena Hernández.
Factors Contributing to the Decline
- Operational Costs: Rising expenses, such as electricity (4.2% increase), packaging materials (5.7% increase), water services (5.7% increase), and transportation costs (6% increase), have strained the industry.
- Cattle Tick Infestation: The presence of the cattle tick, or Rhipicephalus (Boophilus), necessitates additional resources for ranchers to protect their herds, driving up beef prices.
- Import Quotas: The implementation of import quotas under the Package Against Inflation and Scarcity (PACIC) will limit access to cheaper protein sources.
Historical Trends and Future Projections
From 2022 to 2025, beef consumption in Mexico experienced a steady increase of 3.3% annually, with approximately 2,313,300 tonnes consumed. However, this positive trend is expected to reverse in 2026, with a projected 3.1% decline in beef consumption.
While consumption of other meats, such as chicken, pork, and turkey, is expected to rise, beef consumption will likely decrease due to its high price tag. The cattle tick infestation forces ranchers to invest more resources in protecting their herds, contributing to the elevated beef prices.
Impact of Salary Increase on Consumption
Although a 13% increase in the minimum wage from 2026 onwards may potentially boost consumption, businesses must navigate rising input costs, including raw materials, insurance, and maintaining operational stability.
“We are in a balancing phase where businesses can grow and have certainty,” stated ComeCarne’s Director Macarena Hernández.
Import Quota Implications
ComeCarne forecasts a 33.1% reduction in beef imports due to arrival quota restrictions, affecting both North American (already declining for three years) and South American sources.
Despite the United States being the primary importer, its market share has diminished. This shift reflects an effort to lessen reliance on a single country and strengthen ties with others, such as Brazil.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is causing the expected decline in beef consumption? The primary factors are rising operational costs, the cattle tick infestation, and import quota restrictions.
- How will the salary increase impact beef consumption? While a higher minimum wage may potentially boost consumption, businesses must manage increased input costs.
- What are the implications of import quotas on beef supply? Import quotas will limit access to cheaper protein sources, both from North and South America.
