Background and Context
The United States conducted operations leading to the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, resulting in the death of at least 55 Cuban and Venezuelan military personnel, according to updated figures from both countries. While Venezuela has maintained silence on the complete tally of casualties, Cuba and Venezuela have released partial lists.
- Cuba published a list of 32 deceased Cuban military personnel.
- The Venezuelan Army released obituaries for 23 fallen soldiers, though the actual number is believed to be higher.
- The death toll among civilians remains unclear. AFP confirmed the death of an 80-year-old woman in the bombings, while a network of Venezuelan medical professionals estimates 70 fatalities and 90 injuries.
Maduro was apprehended alongside his wife, Cilia Flores, to face charges of drug trafficking and other offenses in the United States. Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s former vice president and successor in the interim, now governs under immense pressure to meet US energy demands and reorganize the Chavismo without Maduro.
Political Landscape and Reactions
The Chavismo organized a women’s march on Tuesday, demanding Maduro and Flores’ release. Daily protests have been called since Saturday, with hundreds of supporters participating.
Diosdado Cabello, the powerful interior minister, walked alongside the crowd on a major Caracas avenue. He addressed the protesters, stating, “Those who laugh at their own misfortune, those who claim Nicolás has been taken and the revolution will fall, do not know this people.”
Cabello and Vladimir Padrino, the defense minister, remain in their positions within the new government. Brian Naranjo, a former US diplomat expelled by Maduro, warned Rodríguez to “sleep with one eye open,” suggesting Cabello and Padrino might seek to undermine her control.
Mariano de Alba, a political analyst, believes that despite internal differences, the Chavismo understands the need for unity to maintain power.
“A Fair Trial”
The United Nations expressed concern over the operation ordered by President Donald Trump, stating it “undermined a fundamental principle of international law.”
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called for a “fair trial” for Maduro, while French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu labeled the US operation as “illegal.”
Maduro declared himself a “prisoner of war” and pleaded not guilty before a New York judge. Trump warned Rodríguez that she must “do the right thing,” or face severe consequences.
Electoral Agenda
A retired general who held high-ranking positions in the armed forces suggested that Rodríguez would open Venezuela to US oil and mining companies. He also anticipates the potential restoration of diplomatic relations, which were severed in 2019.
Simultaneously, Rodríguez would pursue a “political electoral agenda,” including the release of imprisoned politicians, according to de Alba.
Fourteen journalists, mostly from international media outlets, were detained during the Parliament installation day in Caracas, reported by the press union. Two additional journalists were arrested at the Colombian border and subsequently released, with one deported.
Albert Ramdin, OEA’s secretary-general, condemned the political repression in Venezuela during an extraordinary OAS session.
The opposition has rejected Maduro’s potential reelection in 2024 and demands that Edmundo González Urrutia, their candidate, assume power alongside María Corina Machado.
Machado confidently stated that the opposition would win more than 90% of the votes in free and fair elections. However, Trump asserted that Machado lacks support and respect within the US to govern effectively.
Rodríguez’s interim presidency has a maximum duration of 180 days, after which she must call for elections.
