Inflation Overview and Key Product Increases
Mexico’s inflation rate closed 2025 at 3.69%, down from 4.21% in December 2024, which is better than analysts’ expectations. However, some food and goods saw price increases exceeding 60%, impacting Mexicans’ wallets. Which products increased the most in 2025?
According to data from Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), chile serrano experienced the highest increase, with a 64.40% rise.
Top 15 Most Expensive Items
- Chile serrano (64.40%)
- Tostado coffee (27.58%)
- Other fresh chiles (27.47%)
- Green tomato (25.91%)
- Soluble coffee (23.99%)
- Beef chops and ribs (19.30%)
- Beef offal (19.27%)
- Beef trimmings (18.45%)
- Beef sirloin (17.60%)
- Ground beef (16.51%)
- Liquid chocolate for beverages (14.48%)
- Lemon (13.70%)
- Specialty beef cuts (13.69%)
- Personal deodorants (12.52%)
- Lettuce and celery (12.27%)
Risks for 2026
In December, inflation remained within the Banco de México’s target range (between 2% and 4%) for the sixth consecutive month. However, analysts see “clouds ahead,” such as the subjacent component (comprising food, beverages, and tobacco, along with housing and services), which has persistently exceeded 4%.
Monex highlights that, looking ahead to 2026, “significant upside risks” remain for inflation, including: 1) increases in the Impuesto Especial sobre Producción y Servicios (IEPS), impacting goods’ prices significantly; 2) tariffs on countries without free trade agreements, primarily China; 3) a rebound in economic activity compared to 2025; and 4) the persistence of service inflation.
Banamex’s analysis team also anticipates an annual inflation uptick at the start of this year due to the effects of January 1’s tax and tariff increases, which will primarily affect the goods component (which had been rising in 2025 but stabilized).
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What was Mexico’s inflation rate at the end of 2025? A: The inflation rate closed at 3.69%.
- Q: Which products saw the most significant price increases in 2025? A: The top 15 items included chile serrano, tostado coffee, other fresh chiles, green tomato, soluble coffee, beef chops and ribs, beef offal, beef trimmings, sirloin, ground beef, liquid chocolate for beverages, lemon, specialty beef cuts, personal deodorants, and lettuce and celery.
- Q: What are the risks for inflation in 2026? A: Risks include IEPS increases, tariffs on non-free trade countries (especially China), economic activity rebound, and persistent service inflation.
