Understanding the Risk and Its Implications
Víctor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Instituto de Geofísica (IGF) of UNAM, warns that a super solar storm could leave the world without communication for months or even years. This scenario, while seemingly far-fetched, is grounded in the current solar cycle 25, which maintains a probability of an extreme event comparable to or exceeding the historic Carrington Event of 1859.
The Carrington Event: A Historical Precedent
On September 1, 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington observed an intense solar flare that caused auroras visible at tropical latitudes and telegraph system failures. In today’s digital age, a recurrence of such a geomagnetic storm would have catastrophic consequences, according to experts. “We could lose a significant portion of the information we store in the cloud, as if it were a new Library of Alexandria,” Velasco Herrera explained.
Why the Risk is in the Spotlight in 2026
During the IGF Radiation Solar Section Seminar, Velasco Herrera mentioned that a response came in May 2024 when the phenomenon was reported worldwide: the largest instrumentally recorded solar explosion. “At that moment, those of us who study the sun started to take the risk very seriously.”
Although it’s impossible to set an exact date for an extreme event, there is a probability that it could occur “now or within a few years.”
UNAM’s Efforts to Mitigate the Risk
UNAM’s research team possesses one of the most comprehensive time series on solar flares, spanning from 1937 to 2022, along with historical records of sunspots from 1610 to 2025, comprising over a million reports. With the aid of artificial intelligence, investigators aim to identify patterns that could recognize precursor signals, such as unusual auroras at higher latitudes, and enhance the prediction of severe events.
The Urgency of Preparation
Velasco Herrera emphasized the urgency of forming new generations of experts and developing more resilient technology against extreme geomagnetic storms, as the current infrastructure is not designed to withstand a Carrington-type solar flare.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is a super solar storm? A powerful geomagnetic storm caused by intense solar flares, which can disrupt satellite communications, internet, navigation systems, and electronic devices.
- Why is the Carrington Event significant? The 1859 event caused auroras visible at tropical latitudes and telegraph system failures. A similar event today would have far more severe consequences due to our heavy reliance on digital infrastructure.
- What is the current risk level? While no exact date can be set, there’s a probability of an extreme event occurring “now or within a few years,” according to UNAM researchers.
- How is UNAM addressing this risk? UNAM’s research team is using comprehensive solar flare data and artificial intelligence to identify patterns that could predict severe geomagnetic storms, aiming to develop more resilient technology.
- What are the potential consequences? Prolonged communication loss, data loss, and cascading effects on the economy, services, and security.
