Overview
This week, Mexico will release sectoral reports on trade, services, and construction, along with updates on private consumption, monthly economic activity, and inflation. Meanwhile, in the United States, focus will be on GDP growth and prices.
Monday, January 19: Inflation in the Eurozone
Note: The United States observes a federal holiday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which typically leads to reduced trading activity in financial markets.
- Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday in the United States
- Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone (December)
Despite the long weekend in the U.S., markets will monitor the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone, providing insights into price evolution at year-end 2025. This data will help assess household purchasing power and anticipate the European Central Bank’s stance on interest rates in the early months of 2026.
Tuesday, January 20: Private Consumption
Banco de México:
- Government bond auction results
- Preliminary Indicator of Private Consumption (December)
Every Tuesday, the Banco de México discloses government bond auction results, reflecting demand for Cetes, Bonos, and Udibonos. The adjudicated rates indicate expectations regarding monetary policy and appetite for debt instruments.
Inegi:
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) will release the preliminary Indicator of Private Consumption. This figure offers an early signal on household spending performance at year-end 2025, crucial for anticipating internal demand evolution and its contribution to economic growth.
Wednesday, January 21: Economic Activity
Indicators:
- Preliminary Indicator of Economic Activity (December)
- Monthly Survey of Retail Businesses (November)
- Monthly Survey of Services (November)
Preliminary Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE):
This key report offers a preliminary estimate of overall economic performance, allowing analysts to anticipate GDP growth before official final indicators are published.
Monthly Survey of Retail Businesses:
This survey evaluates internal trade behavior, including sales and employment. Its analysis helps assess consumption dynamics and commercial activity at year-end, vital for Mexico’s economic performance.
Monthly Survey of Services:
This survey assesses the performance of Mexico’s most significant economic sector, providing insights into income, employment, and activity levels across various service segments. It helps identify internal demand trends.
Thursday, January 22: Inflation
Indicators:
- Inflation in Mexico (first half of January)
- US GDP growth, preliminary (3rd quarter 2025)
- New US unemployment insurance claims
- US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, November
Inflation in Mexico:
January inflation data will help assess price trends at the start of 2026. The general index provides information on its impact on purchasing power, while the subjacent index (excluding volatile components) helps gauge price pressures’ persistence and anticipate Banxico’s stance.
US GDP Growth:
A new reading of US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 will allow for evaluating the performance of the world’s largest economy during a challenging global environment. This data is crucial for analyzing growth strength and its impact on interest rate expectations.
US PCE Price Index:
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE Price Index, will be released. Monthly variations help assess short-term inflationary pressures, while the annual variation aids medium-term forecasts.
New US Unemployment Insurance Claims:
Weekly new claims for unemployment insurance in the U.S. offer timely signals about labor market conditions. Their evolution helps identify employment dynamics shifts and anticipate growth adjustments in the U.S.
Friday, January 23: Economic Activity
Indicators:
- Global Indicator of Economic Activity (November)
- National Survey of Construction Companies (November)
- US Services PMI, preliminary (January)
- US Manufacturing PMI, preliminary (January)
Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE):
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) will publish the IGAE, offering a comprehensive view of economic performance. Its interpretation allows analysts to evaluate productive activity and predict GDP growth trends.
National Survey of Construction Companies:
Inegi’s results will reveal the performance of a crucial sector for investment and employment in Mexico. The data will help analyze the strength of public and private construction, contributing to economic growth.
US Services PMI and Manufacturing PMI:
The preliminary US Services and Manufacturing PMIs will offer early insights into the most significant sectors of the U.S. economy. Readings above 50 suggest expansion, and these indicators often trigger market reactions.
