Introduction to Fitch Ratings’ Projection
Fitch Ratings estimates that the Fondo General de Participaciones (FGP), the primary resource for state debt payment, will grow by 8.9% in 2026 compared to the previous year. This growth is expected to have a positive impact on liquidity and sustainability of state debt services.
Basis for Fitch’s Projection
The projection is based on the Presupuesto de Egresos de la Federación (PEF) 2026 and the performance of the FGP in 2025. In 2025, there was an annual increase of 6.5% in the FGP, despite a budgeted increase of only 0.2%. This indicates that the Recaudación Federal Participable was in line with estimates by the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP), along with interest rate cuts in 2025, which maintained adequate debt service coverage for subnational entities.
Favorable Trends in Transferences
Total federal transfers reached 1.35 trillion pesos in 2025, including federal participations and economic incentives for states and municipalities. This figure represents a 7.8% increase compared to 2024 and surpassed the initially estimated amount in the PEF for 2025 by 0.8%.
State-wise Performance
Veracruz led with a 31.6% increase, followed by Quintana Roo (15.4%), Durango (14.8%), Coahuila (14.1%), and Campeche (12.9%). Most states maintain credit ratings ranging from “A” to “AA-“, with a stable outlook. However, Tabasco experienced a 1.2% decrease, while Hidalgo saw a 0.8% decline.
Sinaloa, Chiapas, and Michoacán had the most modest increases (1.8% to 2.3%) with Sinaloa being the only case with a negative outlook.
Understanding the Fondo General de Participaciones
The FGP is classified as non-programmable federal spending within the federal budget, meaning its final amount is not fixed. Its annual definition depends on the behavior of the Recaudación Federal Participable and distribution formulas.
Annual Performance in 2025
Campeche had the highest annual increase in FGP (21.2%), followed by Durango (15.9%), Quintana Roo (13.6%), Coahuila (13.0%), and Aguascalientes (12.4%). Hidalgo decreased by 3.8%, and Tabasco by 2.9%. Michoacán, Nayarit, and Oaxaca had the most modest increases (1.1% to 3.6%).
Projections for 2026
Hidalgo is expected to benefit the most with a projected increase of 15.9%, followed by Zacatecas (14.0%), Guanajuato (12.9%), and Tamaulipas, Puebla, and Michoacán (11.1% each). Conversely, Campeche faces a projected reduction of 12.1%, while Quintana Roo is expected to grow by only 0.1%.
Aguascalientes (3.0%), Colima (4.5%), and Tabasco (5.7%) complete the group with lower projected growth.
Ongoing Monitoring by Fitch Ratings
Throughout the year, Fitch Ratings will monitor the real impact of federal participations’ performance on the credit quality of states and municipalities.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is Fitch Ratings’ projection? Fitch estimates an 8.9% growth in the Fondo General de Participaciones (FGP) for 2026, positively impacting state debt liquidity and sustainability.
- What factors support this projection? The projection is based on the 2026 PEF and the FGP’s performance in 2025, which saw a 6.5% annual increase despite a budgeted 0.2% rise.
- How did total federal transfers perform in 2025? Total federal transfers reached 1.35 trillion pesos in 2025, a 7.8% increase from 2024, surpassing initial PEF estimates.
- Which states experienced the most significant increases in federal participations? Veracruz led with a 31.6% increase, followed by Durango (14.8%), Quintana Roo (13.6%), Coahuila (13.0%), and Campeche (12.9%).
- What are the projections for 2026? Hidalgo is expected to benefit the most with a projected increase of 15.9%, while Campeche faces a reduction of 12.1%.
