A Century of Threats
For over a century, Mexico has lived under the shadow of potential US military intervention. In 1916, General Pershing led a “punitive expedition” into Mexican territory in pursuit of revolutionary leader Pancho Villa, who had attacked the US town of Columbus. Today, more than a century later, this threat persists.
Since President Donald Trump took office, the relationship between the two countries has been marked by hostility emanating from north of the Rio Grande. The Associated Press (AP) published an article on January 16, 2026, reporting Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s efforts to dispel rumors of potential intervention by the Trump administration.
Trump’s Pressure and the Drug War
The US has taken the initiative, with its strategy undermining Mexico’s territorial inviolability and national sovereignty. Washington has demanded not only the detention and handover of alleged cartel members but also narco-politicians—public officials colluding with drug trafficking. This adds extra pressure on Sheinbaum, as some of these narco-politicians have ties to Morena, the party that brought her to power, and to her own government.
Sheinbaum’s Response: A Shift in Strategy
President Sheinbaum’s response has consistently revolved around two main arguments: opposition to any form of US armed intervention in Mexican territory and emphasis on her government’s cooperation with US authorities regarding drug trafficking. She claims this collaboration is successful, pointing to drug seizures, arrests of traffickers, and the extradition of 93 crime bosses to the US.
However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on January 15, 2026, that gradual progress in addressing border security challenges is unacceptable to the US government. This indicates that Sheinbaum’s level of collaboration remains insufficient.
Narco-Politicians Under Scrutiny
The cost of preventing US attacks within Mexican territory has risen. Drug seizures and the extradition of traffickers to the US are no longer enough. President Trump has repeatedly asserted that Mexican political figures facilitate or engage in drug trafficking to the US. Washington now demands the handover of these corrupt officials, who indeed exist.
The challenge for President Sheinbaum is that several potential candidates for extradition maintain close ties to former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who still wields considerable influence in Morena and the current government.
Leveraging Corruption for Trade Negotiations
Investigators and journalists specializing in drug trafficking have published lists of alleged narco-politicians, including prominent Mexican political figures such as mayors, governors, and federal officials.
Trump’s penchant for not adhering to agreements, as demonstrated by his criminal convictions in New York, suggests he may use the issue of corruption within Mexico’s justice system to gain advantages in renegotiating the North American trade agreement, known as the T-MEC, involving Canada, the US, and Mexico.
The Path Ahead
Despite new concessions on detentions and extraditions, it’s unlikely that President Trump will abandon the possibility of some form of armed force deployment by US military personnel. Such a mission, analogous to the one in Caracas, is risky due to the extensive US-Mexico border. Moreover, a targeted drone strike on a drug lab is improbable.
The Trump administration is already pressuring Mexico to allow US forces to participate in operations within Mexican territory. This was unthinkable previously but is now a possibility. The challenge for President Sheinbaum will be to significantly increase cooperation with the US while convincing the public that this collaboration is voluntary and respects Mexico’s sovereignty—a delicate balancing act.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is the current state of US-Mexico relations?
A: The relationship has been marked by hostility since President Donald Trump took office, with the US demanding Mexico crack down on drug trafficking and narco-politicians.
- Q: Why are narco-politicians a point of contention?
A: Some narco-politicians have ties to Morena, the party that brought President Claudia Sheinbaum to power, and to her own government, making their extradition a sensitive issue.
- Q: How might the US leverage the situation for trade negotiations?
A: The Trump administration may use the issue of corruption within Mexico’s justice system to gain advantages in renegotiating the T-MEC.
- Q: What challenges does President Sheinbaum face?
A: Sheinbaum must significantly increase cooperation with the US while convincing the public that this collaboration respects Mexico’s sovereignty, a delicate balancing act.
