Introduction
The escalating violence perpetrated by gangs in Guatemala has exposed the vulnerabilities within the country’s security apparatus. The assassination of ten police officers in retaliation for the recapture of three prisons where gang members had taken dozens hostage prompted President Bernardo Arévalo to declare a state of emergency, only surpassed by a state of war.
Experts’ Perspectives
Juan Francisco Solórzano, the former anti-gang prosecutor, asserted in TanGente Podcast that there is “zero control” over the penitentiary system. He also questioned why intelligence services failed to foresee these attacks.
Juan Francisco Sandoval, the former anti-corruption prosecutor (now in exile in the United States), claimed that the criminal offensive “is not accidental but rather part of deliberate operations driven by politico-criminal networks.”
Background and Timeline
The Barrio 18 gang, labeled as terrorists by Guatemala and the United States, has been a source of violence since July when five of its top leaders were transferred to a high-security prison due to their continued involvement in murders, drug trafficking, and extortion, according to the government.
Following a series of riots, twenty members escaped in October from another prison amid allegations of authorities’ complicity, leading to a crisis that resulted in the resignation of the Minister of Interior and other officials.
The recent events, according to Solórzano, were “already part of the plan” to delegitimize the government.
“Sacar” (Remove) the President
This surge in violence coincides with the upcoming changes in the position of the Attorney General, as well as magistrates of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the Constitutional Court, the highest judicial body that has been accused of favoring corruption networks in recent years.
According to Sandoval, this violence is a “message” from political opponents against Arévalo. Solórzano echoed this sentiment, stating that Barrio 18 feels protected by Consuelo Porras and aims to oust Arévalo from power.
Despite criticizing Arévalo’s security policy, Solórzano, a 67-year-old diplomat and intellectual, believes that after two years of governance, “there are no more excuses.”
Aldo Dupie, alias “El Lobo,” a Barrio 18 member with multiple homicide convictions, has a romantic relationship with Sandra Torres’ niece, an opposition leader and former First Lady who has lost the last three presidential elections.
Barrio 18 and their rivals, the Mara Salvatrucha, are powerful mafias operating in Guatemala, the United States, Honduras, and El Salvador. President Nayib Bukele’s government has attempted to curb their influence using a hardline strategy accused of human rights violations and alleged deals with segments of criminality, which Bukele denies.
Fiscal General Porras’s Role
Despite denying any connections with criminals, Fiscal General Consuelo Porras has used instances of violence to criticize Arévalo. She urged him to “be serious, take responsibility, and get to work.”
Risk of Further Attacks
Arévala, backed by the United States, anticipates that attacks will persist as they are reactions from “criminal political elites” fearing loss of control over a corrupt, impunity-ridden system.
Solórzano estimates that these elites are preparing the public for a harsh approach leading up to the 2027 general elections. Moreover, the economic power of gangs enables them to finance campaigns or support their own candidates, according to Minister of Interior Marco Antonio Villeda.
