Overview and Key Figures
Mexico’s economy contracted by 0.2% in November, following a previous month of growth, according to data released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
The Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) reported a 0.2% decline in November, after a 1% expansion in October. Analysts from Monex noted that this result fell short of their expectations and halted signals of a slight uptick in major economic activities.
Throughout 2025, Mexico’s economy has experienced contractions in four consecutive months: 0.2% in March, 0.3% in July, 0.4% in September, and now 0.2% in November.
Contrasting Indicators and Analyst Insights
The Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica (IOAE) suggested a 0.1% growth in November, with an expected monthly expansion of 0.2% by year-end.
Alejandro Saldaña, chief economist at Ve por Más (Bx+), stated that the activity weakened after October’s strong rebound, linked to the reversal of heavy rains in Q3. He also mentioned that high uncertainty and a slowing US economy would continue to weigh on Mexico’s economic activity.
Economic Expectations and Adjustments
Last year, Mexico’s economy showed signs of cooling, leading to reduced growth expectations, even from the federal government.
Initially, the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) projected a growth range of 1.5% to 2.3% for 2025. However, in the 2026 Economic Package, they lowered this estimate to a range of 0.5% to 1.5%.
The latest Citi Survey of Expectations projected an average growth of just 0.4% for 2025, with Multiva estimating 0.6% growth and Scotiabank predicting zero growth (0%).
Primary Sector Leads the Decline
INEGI data revealed that, in November, the agricultural sector led the economic activity decline, followed by services.
Primary activities showed a 0.7% monthly retreat in November, the largest since August 2024’s 15.9% contraction. This reversal follows a solid third-quarter increase, despite a marginal rise in exports and a slight decrease in food manufacturing (proxy for intermediate demand).
Secondary Sector Shows Growth
In contrast, secondary activities (industries) presented their second consecutive monthly growth after four months of declines.
In November, industries grew by 0.2% compared to the previous month. Construction showed the best performance, with a 1.6% increase from October.
Despite this growth, construction still recorded nine annual declines following third-quarter losses due to heavy rains. Manufacturing also rebounded, thanks to less weakness in transportation equipment.
Key Questions and Answers
- What was the overall economic performance in November 2025? Mexico’s economy contracted by 0.2% in November, following a 1% growth in October.
- How have Mexico’s economic activities performed in 2025? The economy has experienced contractions in four consecutive months: March (-0.2%), July (-0.3%), September (-0.4%), and November (-0.2%).
- What do the contrasting indicators suggest about Mexico’s economy? The Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica (IOAE) suggested a 0.1% growth in November, while the Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) reported a 0.2% decline. Both differ from the expected monthly expansion of 0.2% by year-end.
- What are the primary sector’s recent trends? The agricultural sector led the economic activity decline in November, with a 0.7% monthly retreat, following a solid third-quarter increase.
- How have the secondary sector’s industries fared? Industries showed their second consecutive monthly growth in November, with construction performing best at a 1.6% increase from October.
