Julio Ruiz Predicts 1% Growth for 2026, 0.2% for 2025
Citi’s Chief Economist for Mexico, Julio Ruiz, forecasts a GDP growth of 1% for 2026 and 0.2% for 2025, both of which fall short of Mexico’s potential growth rate of around 2%.
Who is Julio Ruiz?
Julio Ruiz is the leading economist for Mexico at Citi, a global financial services company. His expertise and insights on the Mexican economy make him a significant voice in understanding the country’s financial outlook.
Why is this relevant?
Mexico’s economic growth directly impacts its citizens, businesses, and international investors. Understanding the country’s growth prospects helps stakeholders make informed decisions regarding investments, trade, and policy-making.
Current Economic Scenario
Ruiz’s predictions incorporate the renewal of the trade agreement with the United States and an expectation of less restrictive fiscal policy. However, he also considers the possibility that no agreement is reached, which could lead to continued uncertainty affecting investments and slower growth.
Factors Affecting Mexico’s GDP Growth
- Trade Uncertainty: The ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade agreements, particularly with the United States, contributes to slower growth.
- Public Investment Transition: The transition in government led to reduced public infrastructure investment, impacting overall economic activity.
- Private Investment Decline: Private investment has been affected by internal and external shocks, further contributing to the slowdown in economic growth.
Remesas and Their Impact
Ruiz dismisses the notion that remittances are a significant factor in Mexico’s economic slowdown. He explains that while remittances have decreased from their peak of 4% of GDP in 2021 to around 3.4% in 2025, they still represent a substantial portion of the economy and continue to support private consumption.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are Citi’s GDP growth predictions for Mexico? Citi predicts a 1% growth rate for 2026 and 0.2% for 2025, both below Mexico’s potential growth rate of around 2%.
- What factors are affecting Mexico’s GDP growth? Factors such as trade uncertainty, transition in public investment, and decline in private investment are contributing to the slower growth.
- How significant are remittances in Mexico’s economy? Although remittances have decreased from their peak, they still represent a considerable portion of the economy and support private consumption.
Looking Ahead
As Mexico navigates these economic challenges, it is crucial to monitor the performance of various sectors and policy implementations. With Citi’s growth predictions below the market average, there is room for optimism should agreements be reached and investments recover.
