Background on Key Figures and Context
Iran’s warning comes as the United States bolsters its military presence in the Middle East, with the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued this message amidst reports from a U.S.-based NGO claiming nearly 6,000 people have died in the crackdown on protests and that thousands more cases are being investigated due to internet restrictions lasting 18 days.
The protests began in late December over economic woes and evolved into a mass movement against Iran’s theocratic regime, established since 1979, with large-scale demonstrations starting January 8.
Iran’s Firm Stance
On Monday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned of a “forceful response” that would cause “regret for any aggression,” just as the USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in the Middle East.
Esmail Baqai, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, stated that Iran is “confident in its own capabilities.”
In an apparent reference to the aircraft carrier, Baqai added: “The arrival of a warship of this type will not affect Iran’s determination and seriousness.”
“If You Sow the Wind, You Will Reap the Whirlwind”
Iranian authorities installed a large panel in Tehran’s central square displaying a destroyed aircraft carrier, with the slogan “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind.”
The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), based in the U.S., earlier confirmed nearly 6,000 deaths in the protest wave but emphasized that the actual number could be higher.
HRANA reported verifying 5,848 deaths, including 209 security force members. However, the organization noted it is still investigating another 17,091 possible deaths and that at least 41,283 people have been detained.
Repression and Internet Blocking
Human rights groups accuse authorities of directly shooting protesters and blocking internet access since January 8 to conceal the extent of the crackdown.
Despite the challenges posed by protests, Iran’s clerical leaders remain in power. Opponents of the system see external intervention as the most likely catalyst for change.
Organizations monitoring victims of the crackdown have reported their work being hampered by internet restrictions. They also warn that authorities’ cited figures likely underestimate the actual number of victims.
In its first official tally of protests, Iranian authorities reported last week that 3,117 people had died, mostly security forces or innocent bystanders killed by “rioters.”
“We Are Watching Iran”
Cybersecurity organization Netblocks confirmed the internet restrictions persist and stated they aim to conceal “the extent of deadly repression against the civilian population.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. is deploying forces in the region, and President Donald Trump maintains the possibility of military intervention following threats to Iran during the protests’ peak.
“We are watching Iran,” Trump warned last week. “I prefer that nothing happens, but we’re watching very closely,” he insisted.
In June, the U.S. briefly intervened in Israel’s war against Iran by attacking its nuclear facilities.
In Lebanon, the Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah organized a rally in support of the Islamic Republic, with its leader Naim Qasem warning that “this time a war against Iran will ignite the region.”
Simultaneously, the United Arab Emirates, which hosts a U.S. airbase, declared it would not allow attacks on Iran to be launched from its territory.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani urged the European Union (EU) to include Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps on its “terrorist organizations” list.
Tajani stated he will propose this “in coordination with other partners” during an EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Thursday.
“The losses suffered by the civilian population during protests demand a clear response,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter). “I also ask the EU to impose individual sanctions on those responsible.”
