Background on the Relevant Person and Context
BBVA Research, a division of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), is a leading financial think tank that provides economic analysis and forecasts for Mexico and other countries. Their research is highly regarded in the financial sector, influencing both private and public decision-making.
The person mentioned in the article is Saide Salazar, an analyst at BBVA Research. Her insights and projections are crucial for understanding the current state of Mexico’s economy, particularly in terms of private consumption.
December 2025 Consumption Decline
In December 2025, Mexico’s private consumption fell by 4.1% in real terms, adjusted for seasonality – the largest contraction since April 2020 when the pandemic began, according to BBVA Research’s Consumer Spending Big Data Indicator.
The decline in consumption was attributed to a decrease in both goods and services spending, which fell by 2.0% and 7.3%, respectively.
Reasons for the Decline
- Point-of-sale terminal spending: Declined in December, adding to the consumption weakness observed in November and confirming the prolonged internal demand weakness in Q4 2025.
- Real wage growth: Grew by only 4.0% in 2025, below the 6.7% registered in 2024, as per IMSS figures.
- Consumer confidence: The Indicator of Consumer Confidence (ICC) from INEGI ended December with an annual drop of -2.4 points, the largest since the pandemic began, at 44.7 points (seasonally adjusted).
Anticipated Improvement in 2026
Despite the consumption weakness, Salazar anticipates a gradual improvement in 2026 due to salary recovery and reduced uncertainty surrounding US trade policies.
“Although we forecast a slow start to the year for private consumption, we project a gradual improvement throughout 2026 as real wage growth recovers in a context of diminished uncertainty regarding US trade policies,” projected Saide Salazar.
E-commerce Grows Amidst Overall Decline
Among different types of establishments, only e-commerce spending showed growth in December, rising by 3.6% monthly after November’s decline and being 46.8% higher than the beginning of 2025 levels.
In contrast, spending in physical stores decreased by 4.4% monthly, further emphasizing the loss of dynamism observed since September.
- Food consumption: Fell by 1.2% monthly in December, while spending on health-related goods dropped by 0.8%.
- Services: Restaurant spending decreased by 2.9% monthly in December, following the growth observed in November. Hotel spending increased marginally (0.1%).
- Entertainment services: Experienced a significant monthly decline of -17.0%, placing it 18.1 percentage points below the level observed at the start of 2025.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is BBVA Research? BBVA Research is a division of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) that provides economic analysis and forecasts for Mexico and other countries.
- Who is Saide Salazar? Saide Salazar is an analyst at BBVA Research, whose insights and projections are crucial for understanding the current state of Mexico’s economy, particularly in terms of private consumption.
- What caused the 4.1% drop in private consumption? The decline was attributed to decreases in both goods and services spending, with point-of-sale terminal spending, real wage growth, and consumer confidence all playing a role.
- What does Salazar anticipate for 2026? Despite the current weakness, Salazar expects a gradual improvement in 2026 due to salary recovery and reduced uncertainty surrounding US trade policies.
- Which sectors showed growth amidst the overall decline? E-commerce spending was the only sector that showed growth in December, rising by 3.6% monthly.
