Moderate Growth Expected in Housing Credit Market
After a cautious 2025, commercial banks predict a growth of between 3% and 6% in the number and amount of housing credits for 2026. This growth is expected in a context marked by housing shortages, rising home prices, and limited housing supply.
By the end of 2025, banks had granted around 114,000 housing loans worth approximately 275 billion pesos. This figure reflects a more contained market compared to previous years, yet sustained by the increase in housing values.
Lower Credits, Higher Amounts
In 2021, banks issued roughly 153,000 housing loans worth around 268 billion pesos. The average ticket was about 1.7 million pesos.
For 2025, despite the decrease in the number of financing, the average amount rose to 2.4 million pesos, a 41% increase from 2021. This rise has been driven by the constant increases in property prices.
Enrique Margain, CEO of Crédito Hipotecario at Mifel, explained that housing values have grown beyond income levels. This makes it harder for people in their productive years to save for a home purchase.
Uncertainty Impacts Decision-Making
Borja Serrats, CEO of Personal Credit at Santander, noted that the housing market maintains strong demand but insufficient supply to meet it. This combination has led to price hikes in homes above inflation rates.
Serrats added that global economic and political uncertainty also influences decision-making, as it represents the most significant investment for millions of families in the country.
Interest Rates: A Key Factor
Interest rates will play a crucial role in the housing credit market during 2026. Norma Villalobos, product director at Banorte, explained that financial institutions have been prudent in passing on the reference rate reductions marked by the Bank of Mexico to end consumers.
Currently, housing interest rates range from 9% to 11.5%, above the nearly 8% levels observed in previous years, though still considered accessible given the current context.
Villalobos added that meeting the annual inflation target of 3% will be a determining factor in expanding housing credit dispersal across the country.
Financial Inclusion: The Next Step
Beyond interest rates, banks acknowledge that housing credit growth requires expanding the pool of potential customers. Margain emphasized the need to incorporate income inference models using alternative data to serve those with informal employment.
Despite the IMSS registration reaching a historical maximum of 23.8 million, Margain pointed out that this figure is still insufficient to meet the existing housing demand.
All banks aim for double-digit growth, but since 2021, they’ve only seen single-digit growth with a decrease in housing loans. Banks need to build strategies to grow the market, Margain concluded.
Key Questions and Answers
- What growth is expected in the housing credit market for 2026? Banks anticipate moderate growth of between 3% and 6% in the number and amount of housing credits.
- Why is the housing credit market more contained in 2025 compared to previous years? The market is sustained by the increase in housing values, despite fewer credits being issued.
- How have housing loan amounts changed from 2021 to 2025? While the number of loans decreased, the average loan amount rose by 41%, driven by rising home prices.
- What factors influence housing credit decisions? Global economic and political uncertainty, along with interest rates set by the Bank of Mexico, play significant roles.
- What is the significance of meeting the annual inflation target for housing credit expansion? Meeting this target is considered a determining factor by financial institutions for broader housing credit dispersal.
- Why is financial inclusion crucial for housing credit growth? Incorporating income inference models using alternative data is essential to serve those with informal employment, expanding the potential customer base.
