Introduction to Mexico’s Economic Performance in 2025
The average growth of Mexico’s economy throughout 2025 was estimated at 0.7% in real terms, adjusted for seasonality, according to the preliminary estimation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
Comparison with Consensus and Previous Quarters
This estimate by Inegi surpassed the Bloomberg consensus of 0.6% and indicates a recovery from the negative variation of 0.3% observed in the previous quarter.
When comparing the estimated performance for all of 2025 to the GDP observed since 2020, it confirms a fourth consecutive year of deceleration since 2021. In 2021, the activity showed a rebound of 5% after the pandemic’s downturn.
Moreover, as analysts had anticipated, the preliminary 2025 performance confirms a significant widening gap compared to the potential growth rate of 2% and the historical average growth rate between 2000 and 2018, which was 1.8%.
Sectoral Performance in Mexico’s Economy
Inegi’s detailed information shows that in the annual record, the tertiary activities—services and commerce—along with secondary activities, including industry, mining, and construction, had the most dynamic performance at 0.9%.
Meanwhile, primary activities in agriculture, fishing, and livestock experienced a contraction of 2.7%.
From London, Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Chief Economist Andrés Abadía explained that in the fourth quarter of the previous year, there was a general improvement in industry and services, which compensated for the renewed weakness in the volatile agricultural sector. This allowed for a complete reversal of the third quarter’s contraction.
The service sector’s activity accounts for 65% of the economy, making its growth crucial for the positive annual PIB figure.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Latin America Economist Andrés Abadía highlighted that “the overall outlook remains one of limited growth rather than a robust recovery, where services continue to buffer activity, supported by resilient consumption, while industry remains the primary drag amid weak capital investment, political uncertainty, and weaker external demand.”
Economists’ Perspectives on Mexico’s Economic Growth
Banamex Economists’ View on Mexico’s Economic Growth
Economists at Banamex consider that Mexico maintains a weak growth rate, partly explained by internal and external uncertainty factors as well as the contraction of public spending.
They anticipate that in 2026, the economic activity recovery will continue, albeit at a moderate pace with a 1.6% GDP growth rate, accumulating three consecutive years below the historical average of 2000-2018.
Gabriela Siller, Banco Base’s Economic Analysis Director, stated, “There was no recession, but the economic stagnation is evident with a 0.7% growth rate.”
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ strategist shares a similar view: “It’s not about a vigorous recovery; we have confined growth.”
Key Questions and Answers
- What was Mexico’s average economic growth in 2025? The estimated average growth was 0.7%.
- How does this estimate compare to the Bloomberg consensus? The Inegi estimate surpassed the Bloomberg consensus of 0.6%.
- What sectors contributed most to Mexico’s economic growth in 2025? The tertiary activities (services and commerce) and secondary activities (industry, mining, and construction) had the most dynamic performance.
- What was the performance of primary activities like agriculture, fishing, and livestock in 2025? These primary activities experienced a contraction of 2.7%.
- What do economists say about Mexico’s economic growth outlook? Economists from Banamex and Pantheon Macroeconomics agree that Mexico’s economic growth remains weak or limited, with no robust recovery in sight.
