Mexican Economy Grew 0.7% in 2025, According to Preliminary Estimate
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) released the preliminary estimate of Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2025, providing insight into Mexico’s economic growth throughout the previous year.
According to the data disclosed, Mexico’s average economic growth for the entire year was 0.7% in real terms and seasonally adjusted.
The preliminary estimate by Inegi surpassed the Bloomberg consensus, which was at 0.6 percent.
Comparing the estimated performance for all of 2025 against the GDP observed since 2020 confirms another consecutive year of deceleration starting from 2021, when the activity showed a rebound of 5% following the pandemic’s downturn.
Moreover, as analysts had anticipated, the preliminary economic performance in 2025 highlights a significant expansion compared to the potential growth rate of 2% and the historical average growth rate between 2000 and 2018, which was 1.8 percent.
Self-employment, the fastest-growing segment in the labor market in 2025
According to figures from the National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE) published by Inegi, self-employment became the most viable option for entering the labor market in 2025.
Out of the one million and fifty-seven thousand nine hundred seventy positions created last year in Mexico, 557,508 were registered as independent workers. This increased the proportion of this segment within total employment from 20.9% at the end of December 2024 to 21.5%.
With these figures, the universe of self-employed workers currently comprises twelve million nine hundred sixty-four thousand five hundred seventeen people. Fifty-eight point five percent are men, and forty-one point five percent are women.
Mexican Exports Grew 7.6% in 2025
On Tuesday, attention was focused on Inegi’s report on Mexico’s product exports, which grew at an annual interim rate of 7.6% in 2025, reaching USD 664,837.2 billion and continued to be a driving force of the economy for the second consecutive year.
In a context of high trade and geopolitical uncertainty, these commercial flows surpassed the global average as world goods trade increased 6% in 2025, reaching USD 25.9 trillion, according to UNCTAD projections.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s merchandise imports rose 4.4%, reaching USD 664,066.2 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 770.9 million after four years of deficit.
Both exports and imports reached historical highs. Mexico closed the year with an additional boost, as exports increased 17.2% in December—the highest interannual rate since February 2023; while imports advanced 16.7%, the highest momentum since May 2024.
Banxico to Consider Continued Rate Cuts if No Long-Term Impact from IEPS
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) released its 2026 Monetary Program, where it informed that it would consider continuing the cycle of rate cuts if it confirms there is no long-term impact on general prices due to the recent modification of the Ley del Impuesto Especial sobre Producción y Servicios (IEPS) and tariffs applied to imported goods from countries without a trade agreement with Mexico.
“To the extent that the period of relative price adjustments passes without materializing second-order effects in the price formation process and as macroeconomic conditions warrant, Banco de México would value continuing adjustments to the target rate,” they specified.
They warned that “they will determine the pace and scope of the cycle according to the inflation outlook and the assessment of the balance of risks.”
The Fed Maintains Rates Steady in Its First Decision of the Year
The Federal Reserve of the United States kept its interest rates unchanged in its first meeting of the year, amidst a “solid” economic growth environment and facing growing pressure from President Donald Trump for rate cuts.
The decision was made by a majority (10-2), with two members of the Governorship Board (Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller) requesting another 25 basis point reduction.
The Fed has applied quarter-point cuts in its last three monetary policy meetings, as it was concerned about the weakening labor market.
However, solid US GDP growth, relatively low unemployment, and persistent inflation have provided reasons for a pause, which again puts the Fed leaders in confrontation with Trump, who has urged for lower interest rates.
US inflation recorded a variation of 2.7% at the end of the previous year.
Key Questions and Answers
- What was Mexico’s average economic growth for 2025? Mexico’s average economic growth for the entire year was 0.7% in real terms and seasonally adjusted.
- Which segment of the labor market grew the fastest in 2025? Self-employment was the fastest-growing segment in the labor market in 2025, accounting for 21.5% of total employment.
- What was the growth rate of Mexican exports in 2025? Mexican exports grew by 7.6% in 2025.
- What did the Fed decide regarding interest rates in its first meeting of 2026? The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates unchanged in its first meeting of 2026.
- What is the current US inflation rate? The US inflation rate was 2.7% at the end of the previous year.
