Introduction
Official figures confirm that Mexico’s economy is stagnant, with public finances remaining strained by a high deficit and growing debt. The minimal economic growth has prevented progress towards the projected fiscal adjustment reduction goal.
Economic Growth and Public Finances
The annual growth rate for 2025 was the lowest in the past five years, at 0.7%, down from 1.1% in 2024, as reported by INEGI. Despite a slight uptick in the fourth quarter of 2025, the economy has shown continuous deceleration since 2021, following a post-pandemic rebound.
Under the administration of Claudia Sheinbaum, the government managed to reduce the fiscal deficit from 5.8% of GDP to 4.3% of GDP, inherited from former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. However, this figure is still far from the promised 3.9% of GDP.
Government Policies and Investment
Several government policies continue to stifle private investment, including the stalled judicial reform, impending electoral reform, and ongoing security concerns. Despite advancements in combating organized crime, these issues persist and affect the economy directly.
However, there is room for optimism regarding Mexico’s potential benefits from global structural reconfiguration. The country could also see success with a positive and successful T-MEC review.
Export Performance and Challenges
Mexico’s exports to the United States reached a record high in 2025, with $492.513 billion in exports and $309.799 billion in imports, resulting in a favorable trade balance of $183 billion. Nevertheless, crude oil exports fell by 28%, with an average daily export of 580,621 barrels, the lowest volume in records.
The automotive industry and agricultural sector were negatively affected despite the improved trade relationship with the U.S.
Government Initiatives
The Mexican government plans to announce investments in roads and railways, expecting these measures to boost the economy. While these initiatives will have a positive impact, a more substantial effect could be achieved by resolving legal uncertainty, supporting the energy sector without ideological rhetoric, and encouraging private investment.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the current economic figures for Mexico? Official data shows that Mexico’s annual growth rate in 2025 was 0.7%, the lowest in five years, with public finances strained by a high deficit and growing debt.
- How have public finances been managed under Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration? The government reduced the fiscal deficit from 5.8% of GDP to 4.3% of GDP, though it remains far from the promised 3.9% of GDP.
- What are the challenges facing Mexico’s economy? Government policies, such as stalled judicial and electoral reforms and ongoing security concerns, continue to hinder private investment. Additionally, the automotive industry and agricultural sector have been negatively affected by falling crude oil exports.
- What initiatives is the Mexican government planning? The government intends to announce investments in roads and railways, expecting these measures to stimulate economic growth. However, a more significant impact could be achieved by addressing legal uncertainty and encouraging private investment.
