Economists’ Outlook on Mexico’s Economic Prospects for 2026
The moderate economic activity rebound at the end of 2025 is not robust enough to predict stable growth for the current year, according to analysts from Banco Base, Goldman Sachs, Monex, and Banorte.
Monex’s Analysis
Economists from Monex explain that the Q4 performance indicates a “limited and uneven recovery.” They anticipate that in 2026, the economic environment will remain challenging due to trade uncertainty, tariff pressures, and weak investment.
- Moderate growth expected in 2026, contingent on sector-wide recovery, stronger investment, and external demand evolution.
- Projected annual GDP expansion of 1.29% for 2026.
Banco Base’s Perspective
Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, predicts that to achieve growth above 1%, there must be increased demand for Mexican exports from the US and private investment reactivation.
- Optimistic outlook for the first half of 2026, driven by Q4 2025 data and the World Cup, but a potential decline afterwards due to waning tournament effects and T-MEC review-induced uncertainty.
- Consumer spending accounts for 71% of Mexico’s GDP; the World Cup is expected to contribute 0.15 percentage points via consumption and tourism.
Banco Base’s central scenario for Mexico’s economic performance projects a 0.9% growth rate for 2026, potentially reaching 1.4% in an optimistic scenario with a 2.87% US growth rate.
Banorte’s Projections
Analysts at Banorte project a 0.7% growth rate for the ongoing year, following the notable acceleration in Q4 2025.
Goldman Sachs’ Challenges
Experts from Goldman Sachs foresee difficulties ahead due to declining business confidence and the peak of the credit cycle.
