Background on the Secretary of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP)
Édgar Amador Zamora, the head of Mexico’s Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP), recently addressed the nation regarding the 2025 public deficit, which exceeded initial expectations. The SHCP plays a crucial role in managing the country’s finances, ensuring fiscal stability, and promoting economic growth.
Deficit Analysis
The 2025 public deficit stood at 4.8% of the GDP, a decrease from 5.7% in 2024. However, it fell short of the targeted consolidation of 3.9% of the GDP as outlined in the 2025 Economic Package.
Factors Contributing to the Shortfall
- Economic Growth: The actual economic growth was lower than anticipated, with the SHCP initially expecting a 2-3% growth rate. The final estimate placed the growth at only 0.7%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
- Trade Tensions with the United States: When the 2025 Economic Package was drafted, Donald Trump was still in the U.S. presidency, creating uncertainty in trade relations.
- Support for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex): The four types of support provided to Pemex totaled approximately 779,400 million pesos in 2025. Amador Zamora highlighted the intense work done to improve Pemex’s financial profile.
Record-High Public Debt
The expanded debt, measured by the Historical Balance of Requerimientos Financieros del Sector Público (RFSP), reached a record-high of 52.6% of the GDP in 2025, surpassing the SHCP’s initial projection of 51.4%.
The public debt in Mexico amounted to 18 trillion 577 billion pesos, marking a 2.7% annual growth rate amidst fiscal consolidation.
Sustainable Debt Level
Amador Zamora emphasized that the expanded debt remained sustainable at 52.6% of the GDP, preserving Mexico’s investment-grade status with major credit rating agencies and maintaining favorable financing conditions.
Public Spending vs. Revenue
Despite exercising greater resources than approved this year, public spending decreased compared to 2024.
Spending Breakdown
- Programmable Spending: This category, which funds goods and services for the population, decreased by 4.8% annually.
- Non-Programmable Spending: This category, excluding financing costs, increased by 3.3% annually.
- Financing Costs: The government allocated 1.3 trillion pesos to financing costs, a 9.8% increase from the previous year.
Public Revenue
Public revenues totaled 7.975 trillion pesos, marking a 2.5% increase from 2024.
Major Revenue Source
Tax payments from taxpayers accounted for 5.3 trillion pesos, a 4.1% increase from the previous year.
Key Questions and Answers
- Question:
Answer: The public deficit in 2025 was 4.8% of the GDP.
- Question:
Answer: The 2025 public deficit fell short of the targeted consolidation of 3.9% of the GDP as outlined in the 2025 Economic Package.
- Question:
Answer: Lower-than-expected economic growth, trade tensions with the United States, and support for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) were the main factors contributing to the shortfall.
- Question:
Answer: The public debt in Mexico reached a record-high of 52.6% of the GDP in 2025.
- Question:
Answer: Despite exercising greater resources, public spending decreased compared to 2024. Public revenues increased by 2.5% from the previous year, primarily due to higher tax payments.
