Introduction to Business Confidence in Mexico
The business confidence in Mexico started the year on a cautious note following a slight recovery in December 2025 (+0.1 points). The Global Indicator of Business Confidence (IGOEC), developed by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), fell to 48.0 points in January, marking a decrease of 0.2 points from December and an annual drop of 3.4 points.
Contextual Background
The IGOEC reflects the perception of business leaders regarding the economic situation of Mexico and their own companies. It is calculated as a weighted average of confidence indicators in four sectors: Manufacturing Industries, Construction, Commerce, and Private Non-Financial Services.
Sectoral Analysis
- Manufacturing Industries: The confidence index (ICE) for this sector dropped 0.2 points to 48.4 in January, with the most significant declines observed in perceptions about future economic conditions for both the country and businesses, each decreasing by 0.4 points.
- Commerce: The ICE for Commerce fell 0.6 points to 47.1 in January, accumulating 11 consecutive months below the 50-point threshold, indicating a pessimistic outlook. The decline was mainly due to a reduced perception of the appropriate time for investment, dropping to 3.1 points.
- Private Non-Financial Services: The ICE for this sector decreased by 0.1 points to 48.8 in January, accumulating four consecutive months below the 50-point threshold. Despite this, three of its five components—related to the appropriate time for investment and present/future economic conditions in Mexico—remained optimistic.
- Construction: The ICE for Construction increased by 0.4 points to 45.5 in January, though it has been below the 50-point threshold for 17 consecutive months. While investment timing perception scored the highest (+3.5 points), future economic conditions for Mexico reached the lowest level at -3.0 points.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What does the IGOEC measure?
- Q: Which sectors showed pessimism in January 2026?
- Q: How did the Construction sector perform in January 2026?
A: The IGOEC measures the perception of business leaders regarding Mexico’s economic situation and their own companies, calculated as a weighted average of confidence indicators in four sectors.
A: The Manufacturing Industries, Commerce, and Private Non-Financial Services sectors displayed pessimism in January 2026, with the Commerce sector being the most pessimistic, accumulating 11 consecutive months below the 50-point threshold.
A: Although the Construction sector showed a monthly increase of 0.4 points to 45.5, it has been below the 50-point threshold for 17 consecutive months, with mixed optimistic and pessimistic components.
